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The US is focusing on the Crude oil only.

But the problem of lost shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is much bigger:

1) Refined Oil products
a) Diesel
b) Naphtha (used to make plastic and many other products)

2) LNG

3) Aluminum (Uses massive amounts of energy to produce and therefore big plants are in the gulf)

4) Helium (By product from oil wells and used to make compute chips)

5) Sulfur (used to make Fertilizer, copper and many other processes)

6) Urea, ammonia, phosphate (all used to make Fertilizer)

These products cannot be sent through the UAE Hormuz bypass pipelines and the shortfalls already created will definitely cause catastrophic shortages in 2027

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Pyotr. Keep well.

And then there are the oil companies, which will do many things when this war ends, but lowering prices is not among them.

thanks for your analysis which i always find interesting and informative.

Your content is first class, thanks a mill.

Excellent and thorough. 👍

Very astute analysis imho, Mr Kurzin

Thx Pyotr

When you are interviewing someone your speech pattern is smooth and very easy to listen to.  When you are speaking to an audience you stop and put emphasis on every 2nd or 3rd word.  It is awful to listen to and not necessary.  The info you share with us is all you need!

A quick clarification, as a few people seem confused or misunderstood the central point of the video. The argument is not that something dramatic happened overnight. The significant change is precisely that seven months of adaptation are beginning to erode Iran’s principal source of leverage. Oil flows are effectively back at prewar levels, which, if sustained and seem like they could be, will undermine Iran's entire strategy.

It initially demonstrated that it could use 21 miles of water to severely disrupt global energy markets. But Gulf producers, shipping networks and markets have adapted. Crude exports excluding Iran are now effectively back around pre-war levels, new routes and ship-to-ship transfers have emerged, and markets are proving substantially more resilient to disruption than they were at the beginning of the war. That matters enormously because Iran’s strategy depends on making disruption economically intolerable for everyone else.    

That does not mean Iran has lost its leverage entirely — refined products remain constrained, shipping remains dangerous and Iran retains escalation options. That tension is explicitly the point of the second half of the video.  

So the development here isn’t a new missile strike or announcement. It is arguably more consequential: the global economy is becoming increasingly capable of absorbing and routing around the weapon Iran expected would force its opponents to blink.

You may disagree with how significant that is, but to say that it isn't one that wont have consequences for decision-makers is wrong. Saying the video reveals “nothing new” misses the argument being made. Adaptation itself is the story.

thank you. :)

Top tier indeed!

You forgot to mention that most of the oil shock absorbed was due to reserves which are at their lowest so when those end who blinks first

You don’t need a strategic reserve when you are the largest producer.

There’s a shit load of very important cables running under, along and across the Hormuz, an easy target. 🤔

"10% year on year between march and june" .... yeah cause that makes sense

Everything is going as anyone with a brain expected.

Interesting