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Mohamed El-Erian: America Is Exporting Its Debt Crisis

One Decision

3,114 views

#bondmarket #AI #globaleconomy

War with Iran, record diesel prices, and a global bond sell-off: how much more can the world economy take?

Mohamed El-Erian (Wharton, Allianz, former CEO of PIMCO) joins Sir Richard Dearlove (former head of MI6) and John Raine to explain what's driving the bond market sell-off, why the US is exporting instability to the UK, France, and Japan, and why AI is "80% asset, 20% liability." Plus: how PIMCO really navigated Lehman's collapse, and the one decision he's watching.

In this episode:
(00:00) Intro
(03:07) Why this crisis is different
(04:04) Permacrisis and "minilateralism"
(05:46) What's driving the global bond sell-off
(07:32) The hit to US households: mortgages, car loans, the K-shaped economy
(10:10) "Our yields, your problem": UK, France and Japan
(13:05) France, Mélenchon and Europe's leadership vacuum
(17:59) AI: 80% asset, 20% liability
(20:35) US-China AI Race
(31:30) Did PIMCO predict Lehman Brothers collapse?
(35:58) Who wins in today’s economy?
(44:51) Can finance ministers fix what politicians can't?
(46:32) How important are AI companies to the economy?

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies).

#MohamedElErian #BondMarket #GlobalEconomy #Geopolitics #AI #China #OneDecision

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Join Sir Richard Dearlove and his co-hosts as they engage with leading figures in geopolitics, intelligence, and global affairs. They dissect the critical decisions behind the headlines, offering deep insights and expert analysis of the strategies that define international relations. From uncovering the implications of major geopolitical events to decoding the tactics of world leaders, One Decision is your gateway to understanding the complexities of global dynamics.

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13 Comments

@RorydeLínse 20 minutes ago

3 decades of tax cuts for the elites, 3 decades of off-budget wars and 3 decades of deregulation that elevates capital over labor. But it is the social programs bankrupting the US 😂.

@AudiTTQuattro2003 23 minutes ago

Everything Mohamed emphasized requires good governance and strategic thinking. Given the current administration and its short term focus...we are f'd.

@rolfehorne1624 6 minutes ago

Stunning that this discussion is one of the most significant forums, and has the fewest comments.

@jimmymichaud2129 17 minutes ago

“In the long run we are all dead” - Keynes

@puggleski6097 1 hour ago (edited)

While the US juggles bond yields and rigs oil prices, the UK is deperately trying to latch itself to the European hide like an emaciated, desperate louse. Amateurs might think this is about EU tariffs and the war in Ukraine, but those who have grown weary of these perfidous intrigues will merely sigh at this rather late rearguard action to present UK banks as a "safe haven" from the "turmoil in Europe".

Time to rummage around the cupboard for my knitting needles. Winter is coming.

@hobarttobor686 7 minutes ago

this guy was the head of MI6 and he shows his face in public without a paper bag over his head? you would think he would be too embrassed to show his face. He led MI6 from 1999 to 2004, including during the September 11 attacks and the lead-up to the Iraq War.

@jonb5493 21 minutes ago

13:40: Trump has suggested, not the same "burning" debt, but a less dramatic disaster of "rebasing". Call it what you like, "soft default" etc. Granted, it was only a suggestion, a couple years ago.

@cruzn4ever169 1 hour ago (edited)

the answer is " Optionality " countries do NOT know HOW !!!!!!!
tech companies WHEN will they react DIFFERENTLY ?????? = to SAVE the World and put aside their GREED

@richardnunziata3221 4 hours ago

How do you keep the US out of this minilateralism

@GoogleManTenThousand 21 minutes ago

Money will leave warzones and go to USA stockmarket.

@esioanniannaho5939 4 hours ago

The Hedge Funds fiscal Year ends in October and the new Year starts in 1st of November ! So they rebalance their Portfolios and sell from Labor Day to Thanksgiving ! This is their Selling Season ! Watch out !!😮

@colinrhodes1838 15 minutes ago

You mean America’s war in Ukraine, you fell at the first fence. Bye bye.

@MichelT-jo6yu 53 minutes ago

Experts regularly mention that the US debt will never be repaid. Therefore, CANADIAN INSTITUTIONS should sell immediately ($429 billion) before the US Treasury freezes the funds and it becomes impossible to recover them.