Golden Dome & U.S. Missile Defence - What is it, Can it Work, and the Economics of Missile Defence
Perun
337,907 views
Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun
In the 1980s, the U.S. announced an ambition to build a space-based missile shield that could intercept Soviet ICBMS and make nuclear weapons functionally 'obsolete.'
It never happened.
The technology wasn't there, the costs would have been astronomical and there was always a risk of the Soviets out-scaling the system.
After the Cold War ended, U.S. homeland missile defence efforts refocused on rogue and minor actors like North Korea.
Now, with the announcement of "Golden Dome', it appears that the U.S. is once again expanding its missile defence ambitions. And so today we look at what's been announced and funded, how it might work, and the brutal economics of complex missile defence.
Patreon:
Patreon: PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Iron Dome for America Executive Order:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidenti...
Related fact sheet:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheet...
Secretary Hegseth Statement on Golden Dome
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases...
My video on Hypersonic weapons as mentioned in video
Hypersonic Weapons: Overhyped or Superweap...
Space Force officials say it’s too early to pin down Golden Dome costs
https://spacenews.com/space-force-off...
Lockheed Martin - Golden Dome for America
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/...
CBO on Cost Estimates for Space Based Interceptors
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025...
Reporting on Golden Dome Option Selection
https://apnews.com/article/golden-dom...
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05...
https://www.defenseone.com/technology...
General Guetlein on MTI sats
https://www.defensenews.com/space/202...
CRS - Hypersonic Missile Defence
https://www.congress.gov/crs_external...
"The Scaled-Down Look of Star Wars' - Article from 1989
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/art...
US Layered Homeland Missile Defence Fact sheet - 2020
https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jun/22...
RAND - The U.S. China Military Scorecard 2015
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_re...
National Research Council - Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives
(2012)
https://nap.nationalacademies.org/cat...
U.S. Japan agreement on hypersonic defence
https://www.defensenews.com/global/as...
Reporting on HGPI
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/...
American Physical Society Panel on Public Affairs - Strategic Ballistic Missile Defense CHALLENGES TO DEFENDING THE UNITED STATES
https://www.aps.org/publications/repo...
Reporting on Poseidon
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
https://news.usni.org/2022/07/08/doom...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:58 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:08 — America's Iron Dome?
00:13:38 — What Do We Know?
00:19:17 — More Ambitious Asks
00:38:12 — High-end Defence
00:39:42 — Missile Defence Math
00:54:05 — Going Back to Boost Phase
01:02:02 — What if It Worked?
01:05:15 — Channel Update
20 Comments
YEAAAAAAAAH! HOOK IT TO MY VEINS!
Golden Dome & U.S. Missile Defence - What is it, Can it Work, and the Economics of Missile Defence
Perun
337,907 views
Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun
In the 1980s, the U.S. announced an ambition to build a space-based missile shield that could intercept Soviet ICBMS and make nuclear weapons functionally 'obsolete.'
It never happened.
The technology wasn't there, the costs would have been astronomical and there was always a risk of the Soviets out-scaling the system.
After the Cold War ended, U.S. homeland missile defence efforts refocused on rogue and minor actors like North Korea.
Now, with the announcement of "Golden Dome', it appears that the U.S. is once again expanding its missile defence ambitions. And so today we look at what's been announced and funded, how it might work, and the brutal economics of complex missile defence.
Patreon:
Patreon: PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Iron Dome for America Executive Order:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidenti...
Related fact sheet:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheet...
Secretary Hegseth Statement on Golden Dome
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases...
My video on Hypersonic weapons as mentioned in video
Hypersonic Weapons: Overhyped or Superweap...
Space Force officials say it’s too early to pin down Golden Dome costs
https://spacenews.com/space-force-off...
Lockheed Martin - Golden Dome for America
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/...
CBO on Cost Estimates for Space Based Interceptors
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025...
Reporting on Golden Dome Option Selection
https://apnews.com/article/golden-dom...
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05...
https://www.defenseone.com/technology...
General Guetlein on MTI sats
https://www.defensenews.com/space/202...
CRS - Hypersonic Missile Defence
https://www.congress.gov/crs_external...
"The Scaled-Down Look of Star Wars' - Article from 1989
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/art...
US Layered Homeland Missile Defence Fact sheet - 2020
https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jun/22...
RAND - The U.S. China Military Scorecard 2015
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_re...
National Research Council - Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives
(2012)
https://nap.nationalacademies.org/cat...
U.S. Japan agreement on hypersonic defence
https://www.defensenews.com/global/as...
Reporting on HGPI
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/...
American Physical Society Panel on Public Affairs - Strategic Ballistic Missile Defense CHALLENGES TO DEFENDING THE UNITED STATES
https://www.aps.org/publications/repo...
Reporting on Poseidon
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
https://news.usni.org/2022/07/08/doom...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:58 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:08 — America's Iron Dome?
00:13:38 — What Do We Know?
00:19:17 — More Ambitious Asks
00:38:12 — High-end Defence
00:39:42 — Missile Defence Math
00:54:05 — Going Back to Boost Phase
01:02:02 — What if It Worked?
01:05:15 — Channel Update
Cheers for the patience with the one week delay on this one - I wasn't well last week and just didn't think I could land a video properly at the time. Hopefully this feels worth the wait.
One reflection up front is that most of what we've seen funded for Golden Dome so far are existing programs and efforts that are being accelerated or better linked together. Many of them (like more space-based sensors) have potential value in a wide variety of scenarios. The reason I focus on the idea of homeland missile defence against a peer opponent so much is because that's one of the biggest ways Golden Dome might be different to US missile defence policy over the last several decades. How much emphasis actually ends up placed on that aspect of the plan, only time will tell.
The other major reflection here (having gone back over a bunch of what was written about SDI in the 80s and 90s) is that even though there are still a huge number of unknowns with the program there are probably a few key questions that history suggests should be asked consistently throughout a project like this one:
- Will this actually likely work, how reliably and against what?
- What can an adversary do to get around this and how much of a problem is that?
- Does this deliver value for money compared to all of the other competing priorities on the table.
Asking those questions isn't about blocking all development efforts, it's about making sure that the right efforts go forward.
No commander is ever going to say they want less missile defence and no civilian population is ever going to say they want to be less protected from incoming missiles. But commanders want and need a huge range of things to do their jobs effectively, and the civilian population also has a variety of needs and wants that go well beyond their missile defence preferences. The important part is to honestly assess the right balance and make sure investment flows where it can have the most valuable impact. It'll be interesting to see how that aspect of this effort plays out in the coming years and how U.S. competitors and allies choose to respond.