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The CCP has sacrificed the Chinese people. They sold out their prosperity for the perception of prosperity.

I'm a geographer that can't travel much so I watch lots of road trip video's. One thing I notice from China is that there is food and firewood everywhere. Crops on road verges. A years fire wood leaning against a 300 year old house or a new 3 story building. There is no way that elderly granny gathered that wood or planted those crops. There are probably a lot of people doing off books work across the country. It's probably not paid for with Yuan. How much is barter, WeChat, Bitcoin, an off book Altcoin or L.E.T.S? How much of the Chinese economy has completely decupled from the national economy and its data gathering systems? That's a whole other shadow economy.

Gordon Chang's broken clock prediction is being replicated here😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Whether China's economy is bad or not isn't something you can just sit there and spout nonsense about. It's what people living there tell you, based on their experience of our economy, our lives, and how we're doing. It's not something you can just spout off and say, "The economy is bad, so what?" Many tourists go to China; ask them if the Chinese economy is bad.

00:22:43: Logan Wright introduces the topic of how China became a dominant force in global metals and minerals processing
cheap credit
23:27 role of cheap power/energy in metallurgy

Chinas "GROWTH" has been an illusion based on a Ponzi scheme style of manipulation in banking.  Who in their right mind buys a home before it's built and inspected?  The entire system was bound to implode and a growth rate of 5% yearly based on a goal set by committee without a complete economic picture is insane.   When  data isn't collected because it makes the growth look bad you are on a downward spiral to economic ruin!

Why is a Chinese advantage labelled a threat,  where a western advantage is labelled leverage.  Demonising China is not an answer to trade imbalances.

5:54 after the global financial crisis (2008), China saw the largest single country credit expansion that the world has seen in at least the last century, possibly many centuries. China added a third of global GDP to its bank assets in just 8 years. And we've never seen anything remotely like this.

First, there was an deliberate attempt to provide this sort of credit expansion to provide counter cyclical policy support in the response the global financial crisis. But the extension of it after that was essentially a form of path dependence. Growth was strong. It was dependent upon investment and then it became too difficult for authorities to shut down without imperiling uh the overall economy.

So much for the feasibility of the Kenesian economy ... it does not match with capitalism, neither democratic capitalism in Europe nor totalitarian capitalism in China.

China has collapsed, been collapsing, and will collapse in the last 25 years, right now and in the future according to western media. 🤣🤣🤣

9:05  property (development) was 20 to 25% of China's GDP at its peak. Construction has fallen almost 80%.

China is collapsing now, and has been collapsing everyday since the day you were born. If that makes you happy. This bunch is delusional.

Guardrails could be arbitrarily removed for national mission. After all hell breaks loose, those who executed orders are blamed for uplifting the guardrails.

China collapsing since  2000 BC

20:19 ...look at all of the manufacturing powerhouses that have been built over the past 15 years...
If the underlying economy is not growing, your ambitions to develop those industries are going to face pretty fundamental limits.  They are already facing limits from your own capacity to fund and finance them with the domestic fiscal and financial system.
The limit that will be faced is essentially the fact that for everything that is being developed in China, the marginal source of demand is outside of China rather than inside of China.
And if China remains an investment economy as the largest inst source of investment in the world, it can only grow and your
national rejuvenation can only occur relative to the rest of the world by displacing others export market share by
fighting over a shrinking pie. And as that pie shrinks further if China's export prices continue to decline and drive additional disinvestment in the rest of the world which means that your customers which are largely outside of China rather than inside of China cannot afford everything that you are producing increasingly or un unable or unwilling to afford everything that...

Another comrade.

If the Chinese leadership believes that AI will make market information superfluous, then they are falling into the same trap that Soviet economists did when computing began to become increasingly enmeshed in economies during the Cold War.

The assumption was that resource allocation could be carried out without the market. But computers don't solve the problem, because the competitive market process is itself part of what produces the information required for economic calculation.

Ultimately, AI can only interpret data that it is aware of and that exists within its databases. It does not follow that AI can replace the institutional process by which decentralized actors discover information, establish opportunity costs, and generate prices.

If AI is what the CCP is hitching its wagon to in order to address its vast macroeconomic misallocation, it won't get very far at all.

According to IMF, China GDP by ppp is 1.38 higher than US, so if both grow by 2% in the next 5 years, China will be way ahead in real substance, not the other way round.
A high credit whether in debt or just credit creation , without corresponding self supply sufficiency, will lead to either inflation or high cost of capital or both, further leading to recession or stagflation. The US is moving in the direction. China is moving in the opposite. US is now cornered but China has room to play.
One economist stated that in the past 30 years, the US lower 50% continues to decline in real income while China lower 50% continues to grow. Is this not more meaningful than the nominal GDP growth.
Another economist said that life expectancy is a good proxy of living standard, which is a good proxy of GDP per captia and its fair distribution. China has just marginally exceeded US last year in life expectancy. Again a more meaningful indicator than GDP.
Does the property collapse create a financial, economic and social crisis in China like the US subprime crisis which lead to bank collapse and homelessness. This did not happen in China because  the banks are state owned and in China house ownership is 94% of household versus 60% in US. The ones  that default the bank tends to be the rich buying the property for investment.
Many countries such as the US create huge credit for consumption, which generally does not lead to higher production but higher trade deficit. This will lead to both local inflation and currency devaluation, ie imported inflation. China has the same credit creation , but with enoigh saving and trade suplus, there is no need for China to borrow externally  and with sufficient local production, there is no local inflation. In fact with AI and robotic, leading to less employment , more credit can be created to provide the purchasing power with no pressure on inflation.
With the US starting the sanction in 2018, China has switched the focus to full sufficiency and full defense.  With AI and robotic automation and 1.4 billion, this is doable over time. This takes priority over just GDP figure .
China also plan for complete decoupling of the west. Belt and Road is to help the global south to develop and to lower their cost of development with much cheaper technology than the west. In the short term this will lower China GDP figure. In the long run global south will be china main external market.

I believe this was always going to happen based on the Political system that required such a financial system to exist in order to control the population. The CCP can't have individuals empowered because the government would lose more control over their free will.

Walking through the foreign exchange portion of the talk would have helped me in that I do not know if the currency is overvalued or undervalued and the cost of maintaining that value and what could be done to improve the situation, everything else was pretty clear in a very murky situation.  Thanks.