OpenTube

NATO's Munition Challenge - Costs, Recent Lessons & Rebuilding Magazine Depth

Perun

322,052 views

Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun

From the Red Sea to the War in Ukraine, it's been demonstrated that the US and many NATO states can produce high-quality munitions.

What isn't clear is that they can produce them in sufficient quantities, or at low enough prices, to meet the demands of a deteriorating security environment and rising focus on conventional deterrence against peer and near-peer competitors.

In this episode I look into how many Western munitions became so expensive, what strategic risks that creates, and some of the methods nations might use to rebuild their stocks without destroying their national budgets in the process.

Patreon:
Patreon: PerunAU

Reading and Sourcing (to be updated due to late release):

USN Missile pricing per:
https://www.twz.com/sea/what-the-navy...

ERAM RFP - OT Solicitation Number: FA8682-24-R-0014
https://govtribe.com/file/government-...

USN Weapon Procurement (including SM-3)
https://www.secnav.navy.mil/fmc/fmb/D...

GAO on Abrams Operating Costs (1991)
https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-91-1...

RUSI - Silicon Lifeline
https://static.rusi.org/RUSI-Silicon-...

ERAM, MACE, ETV & FAMM:
https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/a...
https://www.twz.com/air/air-forces-ch...
https://www.twz.com/air/cheap-long-ra...

Gray Wolf
https://www.twz.com/32669/air-forces-...

Cleaver
https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidham...

https://www.twz.com/33716/air-force-u...

US Munitions Expenditures in Red Sea
https://www.twz.com/news-features/nav...
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/us...
https://www.twz.com/news-features/u-s...

Standard Missile Production & Contracts
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/202...

JSM for USAF F-35
https://www.twz.com/air/usaf-f-35s-ar...

APKWS & APKWS II
https://www.flightglobal.com/helicopt...
https://www.twz.com/air/f-16s-with-la...
https://www.twz.com/air/air-launched-...

Barracuda
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/and...
https://theaviationist.com/2024/09/13...

CMMT
https://www.twz.com/air/lockheeds-low...

JASSM/LRASM:
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/loc...

Caveats & Comments:

All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:37 — the Cost Problem
00:12:18 — Nuances
00:15:13 — Meeting Demand?
00:22:17 — Conversion
00:37:58 — Scaling Down
00:47:22 — Technology Substitution
00:50:04 — Industry
00:55:10 — the Risk
00:56:58 — Teaming
01:00:34 — Channel Update

20 Comments

@PerunAU Creator 1 year ago (edited) Pinned

Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun

Cheers for the patience with the delayed release on this one - I really didn't want to ask my hard working sound guy to work on Easter Sunday but I hope you all had a great weekend.

A few thoughts on this one on reflection. Firstly, this is not an issue unique to NATO states or even to Western militaries. The basic interaction of complexity, cost & quantities apply pretty much universally and if we had time there are examples we could draw on from Russia to Iran.

The second is that is that US stockpiles are, by global standards, massive. It's just that the task of trying to deter a peer or near-peer opponent is much more demanding than the security environment on the 90s and early 2000s. Any wargame that tries to model US munition expenditure though, should probably make sure it's also accounting for what is happening to stocks on the other side.

The final part is that beyond the technical side of things, there's a policy and incentives aspect to the question of why military kit often ends up being so expensive...but we can unpack that another time.

Also a small audio flub to note - at one point I refer to MACE as the Multi-Mission Capability Effector while the slide says Capacity Effector. The slide is correct, it was just a slip in recording. There is also a case of GLSDB being written (incorrectly) as GLDSB in big bold letters on a slide.

@Rbdpng 1 year ago

Sorry I’m late I was stuck in another Signal group chat

@xuthnet 1 year ago

"you end up with less of a JASSM and more of a HALF-ASSM".

@bluemarlin8138 1 year ago

One point everyone misses about WWII production figures is that most countries started ramping up production well before the war ever started. Even in the U.S., naval construction—which has by far the longest lead time—was receiving massive investment starting in 1938-39 with the 2-Ocean Navy Act. There were over 10 fleet carriers and 8 fast battleships, plus hundreds of smaller ones, either in production or on order at the time of Pearl Harbor.

@iain-q1e 1 year ago

Ammo stocks - I was a young officer in the UK Royal Artillery back in the 1980's. Our main commitment was BAOR (British Army of the Rhine) and much of our ammo stores were in Europe as well as within UK, then came The Falklands. A combination of losing some stores at sea and firing support missions for ground forces we got through a lot of ammunition. We had virtually nothing left in UK for 105mm guns. My battery spent most of 1982/83 shouting "BANG!" rather than actually live firing since we had nothing to spare for drills. I have no idea if we increased reserve ammunition stocks post 1982, but if we did I fear that someone will have decided we were holding too much once again.

@raken0230 1 year ago

6:56 “Meaning that if you somehow found a way to bring down incoming missiles by flinging Lamborghinis at them”
Lines like these are why I always love watching these videos, they always give my day a much needed laugh

@UK_Hobbes 1 year ago

When I saw the dial up modems I could literally hear the image through my screen. The screeching never goes away.

@euansmith3699 1 year ago

Darth Perun, "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed. The ability to destroy a planet, or even a whole system, is insignificant next to the power of the Logistics."

@nortyfiner 1 year ago (edited)

Scary thought: historically, most nations in peacetime have tended to underestimate their burn rates of ammo and other supplies in wartime, sometimes very badly. Given that historic lesson, the burn rates Perun cited from the wargaming scenarios are probably optimistic.

@squidgameman441 1 year ago

World: faces munitions shortage crisis

Hanwha and Poongsan: laughs in Korean

@nekomakhea9440 1 year ago

>They can calculate that they can just tank the hits you can dish out until your magazine runs dry
Ah yes, the Zapp Brannigan strategy

@Justmichael1995 1 year ago (edited)

So excited for my weekly powerpoint!

@MM22966 1 year ago

"The big armor-lobby dropped the ball...." four minutes in and I already dying! LOL!

@TheNaturalLawInstitute 1 year ago

@PerunAU Thank you for drawing attention to this issue. I see this as a crisis.

@KerbalFacile 1 year ago

"Capital artillery is all about chunking large portions of your military budget at the enemy"

@The_Real_Phil_Lee 1 year ago

Another aspect in favour of basing systems on commercial platforms or components is that the more military-specific components you need, the more security-cleared people you need to produce them, and, as the process of clearing people is slow, the harder it is to ramp up production if and when needed. This is the problem currently being experienced by Thales in Belfast with their plan to double production, and hence, staffing. The bottleneck is how fast those additional staff can be security cleared, not how fast they can be recruited and trained. That is also a huge cost, as recruiting the people is expensive, and you need to pay them (for some reason they object to being unpaid prior to clearance) for up to, and in some cases, even more than, a year before they can even be trained on some aspects of the job, never mind actually produce anything saleable. Even if they are being paid to do nothing of worth, they can get bored and drift away to other jobs that are more stimulating, so they need to be paid enough to discourage them from doing that, or given incentives like access to training that will still be valuable to them outside the defence industry while they are sitting around waiting for their clearances.
Suppose the military (and therefore, secrecy-requiring) parts can be minimised. In that case, it is easier to keep cleared staff available in other parts of the business, ready to be shifted into the more critical roles when required, while non-cleared staff can replace them in their original (and non-clearance-requiring) roles.

@Vector4444-d5b 1 year ago

When the world needed him,he returned...

@ward1476 1 year ago

In 2008 Belgian soldiers were ordered to shout "pang" instead of shooting bullets during exercises because we didn't have reserves for training.

@wacojones8062 1 year ago

One factor to look at what is in Forgotten deep storage, as a US Army reserve member we were shooting 50 caliber ammunition made in 1943, and expending Bangalore torpedoes made in the same time period that the active force were not allowed to use. 27 semi-truck loads were sent to Ft. McCoy that summer for the Reserve and National Guard units to expend to free up storage space for new production. I am pretty sure other training sites were getting similar amounts that summer.

@fieryweasel 1 year ago

I think we should look into this Lambourghini defensive system Perun mentions. Think how much more cost effective a Ford Taurus Assault System would be than a Javelin!