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Henrik Zeberg: Why Bond Yields Are About to Collapse

GoldRepublic Global

17,086 views

Henrik Zeberg returns to Macroscopic to explain why he believes markets are approaching the final stage of the economic cycle. While much of the market is focused on sticky inflation, rising bond yields and the risk of a sovereign debt crisis, Henrik argues that the real warning signs are emerging in the labour market, housing and credit.

We discuss why he expects bond yields to fall sharply, why he believes the Fed is misreading the economy and how the AI investment boom may be masking much deeper economic weakness. Henrik also lays out his roadmap for the dollar, Nasdaq, gold, Bitcoin and altcoins, including why he still expects one final risk-on phase before a major deflationary bust.

Finally, Henrik explains what would prove his thesis wrong and the key signals he expects markets to deliver over the next three months.

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The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent.

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00:00 Intro
01:00 Where Henrik Sees the Cycle Today
10:14 Why Bond Yields Are About to Plunge
21:50 The Signals That Confirm Recession
33:32 America’s Frozen Housing Market
40:17 Why the Fed Is Playing With Fire
49:27 Why Stagflation Comes After the Bust
56:58 Dollar, Nasdaq and the Final Blow-Off
1:08:29 Gold’s Pullback Before the Next Bull Run
1:16:15 Bitcoin, Altcoins and the Deflationary Bust
1:23:40 What Happens Over the Next Three Months

20 Comments

@Verrachi 18 hours ago

Did we ever get a respond to his $600-$800 gold call from 2018-2020 is going? 😂😂😂

@stevemar8027 17 hours ago

Guy is missing that the debt and deficit issue is not like any other recession . Bonds can still go down in price during a recession if lack of faith remains. This is a sovereign bond issue, rates may go down temporarily I. A collapse situation but won’t stay there for long. Massive Fed buying would be needed to temp keep long rates down but that increases the lack of faith driving rates up again. Pundits are looking at old playbook on bonds !

@codewarriorx-o9l 15 hours ago

Zeberg and his doom day scenarios that he has been repeating forever. He blocks anyone who challenges his hypothesis. Stay away from his predictions.

@ruskee3415 14 hours ago (edited)

Henrik doesn't seem to realise that the Fed have been buying US Treasuries behind the scenes keeping long term rates far lower than they would be in a free market. Bonds do not operate in a free market, the exist in a market that is grossly manipulated and distorted.

@My_DNA_told_me_to_do 16 hours ago

Thank you guys 🍻

@coffeecupman 13 hours ago

Love Henrik. Great interview.

@Lebenszugzwang 2 hours ago

Another Snipah v Zeberg debate would be great.

@srinathsilvester1665 7 minutes ago

Does anybody know the background music in the first minute of the video

@edwardgofsky4862 13 hours ago

This looming 2027 economic collapse and stock market meltdown is the best case study in the definition of “Waiting for Godot”.

@Jetter638 15 hours ago (edited)

Great conversation and good challenges to Henrik's thesis. Personally I'm on the same page with Henrik. The question is how do we invest if the described scenario plays out? That is the one question that I would have asked. He gave a lot of tips but it would have been good to have him tie it all together with his investment recommendations during each phase of the "slow down".

@Skooner2323 13 hours ago (edited)

I dont think there is anyway you can allow inflation to get low (let alone actual deflate) ... how else are they going to cover the debt ? that is the thing that changes all the political math vs prior cycles

@randyosborne3971 17 hours ago

Relax.. every facet of this economy is manipulated by Uncle Scam. Even the bond market and physical metals.

We are manipulated by a two party system that bases our future on quid pro quo donor money, campaign contributions and special interest money. That's our legislation system.

@Jon-pl3hr 1 hour ago

I think Henrik is right, the consumer is not the cause of inflation it is trumps sabotaging of the world's oil economy. The commercial interests, as they do, have jumped on the bandwagon and raised their prices with the oil excuse. They are the ones who need higher rates, not consumers. If you punish them with harder times, the economy faces collapse.

@carrickrichards2457 1 hour ago

Post WW2 debt was erased with high inflation: US it peaked ~20%; UK peak ~26%; interest rates lagged; bond holders paid for that. With current debt and deficit, high and enduring inflation is now inevitable. US now needs to sell-refinance nearly $3Tn Treasuries a month. To find enough Treasury buyers, government raises yield. That's not not going to change in any way that will make yields drop.

@eziekieleziekiel151 13 hours ago

Has Henrik Zeberg considered cost push inflation caused by Higher Diesel and aviation Kerosene prices, increased fertiliser costs, shortages of sulphuric acid and the aftermath of a super El Niño. Does he believe that this is a nothing burger or a red herring. As these costs pile up suppliers will have no choice but to pass these costs on.

@eziekieleziekiel151 13 hours ago

How brilliant- Henrik Zeberg has just found a solution to Turkey’s high inflation. If Turks stop spending Turkey’s inflation collapses. Is it really that simple

@innova1335 17 hours ago

Did they cover what the average Joe can do now to mitigate the future pain incoming?

@tedpaulus 12 hours ago

Henrik thinks in business cycles. This frame of reference is less relevant when the “big debt cycle” (as Dalio calls it) is in its late stages.

Henrik needs to zoom out and look at the level of sovereign debt to gdp. That’s what makes this different from 1999 and 2007.

@jamesburke3803 16 hours ago

It appears he is using Elliot Wave analysis, which most people give up on fairly quickly. From a TA POV, i just don't see his gold numbers working out..... but i could very easily be wrong. I've been wrong a lot in the last half century-- especially listening to guys like him too closely.
I bought my first bar of silver in 1975, while stationed aboard a ship in the central Pacific. I paid $5 an ounce. I bought it as a hedge against the hyperinflation everyone was talking about....
In 1999 it was still $5 an ounce!
During that time period, gold went from $200 to $300.... whoopie!
But did i learn?
No, most of my wealth is stored in PMs. I'm hoping his long term prediction is at least half right.

@robertjosan 16 hours ago (edited)

I think for sure what’s coming is worse than 1929 because the present generations are much weaker, less self sufficient and more urbanized, most have no knowledge about homestead lifestyle. . In addition, there is far more great leverage in the system now so the impact will be exponential when the system implodes.