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▼Video Summary
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In 2009, a book was published in the United States.

"The Next 100 Years"

In Japan, it was translated in the same year as "100-Year Predictions."

The author is George Friedman, who founded the private intelligence company Stratfor and led an organization sometimes called the "shadow CIA."

This book is a future history constructed not from the ideologies or desires of leaders, but from geography, population, resources, and access to the sea, outlining how nations will inevitably move forward.

The book described Russia's resurgence and decline, China's internal stagnation, and the rise of Japan, Turkey, and Poland.

Furthermore, the latter half of the book depicts a future where Japan takes the lead in East Asia after China's decline, resulting in a conflict with its ally, the United States. The war is set to begin on November 24, 2050, American Thanksgiving Day.

This video overlays the original book's descriptions with publicly available data from 2026 onto the same map.

This includes the 2025 population statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the IMF and World Bank's assessments of China, Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate of 16.4 percent, the rare earth element sediment successfully extracted from 5,569 meters below the seabed of Minamitorishima (a world first), and the Ministry of Defense's space and unmanned asset policy.

After clearly distinguishing between the directions the original book predicted and those that were wrong, the video explores the single question: "Why would allies end up fighting each other?"

#UrbanLegends #100YearPredictions #Geopolitics #FuturePredictions #ChinaSituation

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【Contents covered in this video】
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・Published in 2009, "The Next 100" Structure of "The Next Generation" (Japanese translation: "100-Year Forecast") and the prediction method used by the author
Directions that the original work predicted correctly (Russia's resurgence, end of the war between the US and the Islamic world, internal instability in China)
Parts that the original work missed (collapse of the Russian Federation government in the 2020s) and how Stratfor revised its assessment of China in 2015
Population at the end of 2025 as published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (1.40489 billion, a decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year, 7.92 million births)
Japan's biggest constraint: its energy self-sufficiency rate of 16.4 percent and the deep-sea rare earth sediment in the Minamitorishima EEZ
Strengthening of the Ministry of Defense's space, cyber, electromagnetic wave, standoff, and unmanned assets
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs' explanation of the current policy of strengthening the Japan-US alliance (the strongest counter-evidence to the original scenario)
The world war of 2050 depicted in Chapter 11 of the original work and its flanks

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▼References
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George Friedman, "The Next Generation" * 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century* (2009)
https://books.google.com/books/about/...

Hayakawa Publishing's 100-Year Forecast Official Bibliography
https://www.hayakawa-online.co.jp/sho...

Stratfor Worldview "Decade Forecast: 2015-2025" (Long-term forecast for 2015 - revised assessment of China)
https://worldview.stratfor.com/articl...

Geopolitical Futures "The 2020s and Its Historic Shift” (reviewed by the author himself)
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/georg...

National Bureau of Statistics of China “Total national population in 2025: 1404.89 million” (January 19, 2026)
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/2026...

National Bureau of Statistics of China National Economic Statistics Bulletin 2025 (English version)
https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/Pres...

Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Population Estimates"
https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/

IMF, "China: 2025 Article IV Consultation"
https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/...

World Bank, "China Economic Update"
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pre...

International Energy Agency “Solar PV Global Supply Chains”
https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-pv-...

International Energy Agency “Batteries and Secu...