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What's Making Hobbit Singles Fall & Box Prices Stay High?

Joel Are Magic

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Hobbit collector booster boxes are still over $800 one month after release, while every top chase card in the set got cut in half from its preview price. This is the full one-month breakdown of Magic: The Gathering Hobbit collector boxes, collector packs, and singles prices, and why those markets are ignoring each other.

We cover the box price run and pullback, collector packs at double MSRP, the best collector box opening you will ever see (pulled at $450 MSRP, and what it proves about $800 boxes), the feast-or-famine collation in the final foil Booster Fun slot, and where the big chases landed: Gleaming Splendor's borderless surge, the surge foil One Ring, Gandalf Goblins' Bane, the Dwarvish Mox Amber, Orcish Bowmasters, Arcane Signet, and Flowering of the White Tree. Then I grade your buy-in prices from the comments.

Bottom line: under $700 is where a box even starts getting interesting, MSRP is the only pack price worth paying, and the Hobbit singles window I am shopping opens mid-October into November. What is your number today? Drop it in the comments and I will grade the next batch.

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Title Music: Sam Johnides aka The Johnicles
Special thanks to Jennifer
Card images courtesy of Wizards of the Coast and Scryfall (www.scryfall.com).

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20 Comments

@algorithmengagement 3 weeks ago

I'm standing by my theory that there's a lot of speculators sitting on a lot of sealed CBBs and they're keeping those boxes hoarded hoping they repeat the pattern of LotR special edition boxes. And that's what's helping to keep box and special treatment single prices high.

@andrewlincoln4127 3 weeks ago

Large sections of the country don’t even have access to play boosters at local stores. I am really surprised by the singles prices. That “first” week of September promised supply seems to have missed the deadline.

@TheButTickler 3 weeks ago

Great Goblin, Foul Hearted is the one you can only find in collector boxes right now

@trinidadleooo 3 weeks ago

always thought you were an MTG ambassador. another nice post!

@Odin_All-Father 3 weeks ago

Got my singles on day 3 when the opening weekend bottom hit. Feeling pretty good about it. Got a Gleaming Splendor book cover (non-foil) for just $55. It's up around $90 now. Everything I bought is either the same price or more than what I paid for it save a base printing of Bilbo, Thief in the Night which is down about $4 from what I paid. (I'm ok with that loss, it was an instant insert into my Kess graveyard spellslinger deck that I play every weekend.) All in all, if it is a single going in a deck that I play regularly I like to buy in the opening weekend dip (so long as it is generally under $75.) If it is something I am looking at collecting or isn't for a deck that I play all the time, then I wait the 3-4 months. An example being, I really want to buy a Dwalin dwarf typal/equipment commander deck that I have brewed up. It will include dwarven language versions of Mox Amber, Arcane Signet, and The Reaver Cleaver. I am waiting for October-November before I will even consider buying anything to build that deck. I might even take apart and sell some other stuff to do so in late September/early October.

Play the game, and buy in the windows.

@metalhead11t6 3 weeks ago

Pulled gleaming splendor from my pre release kit. So I finished my "hobbit collection" day one. Also got Orcrist SOOO this set can rot in hell.

@anthonyjohnson8596 3 weeks ago

Belladonna Took is so nice.

@Quazia 3 weeks ago (edited)

I would expect a dip in the box prices over the new week or two when the mass of arena direct boxes and the 2nd wave hit and then up only.

@MrZestubo 3 weeks ago

as boxes are opened, supply of singles increases and supply of sealed boxes to gamble with decreases. So while the EV of a box decreasing acts as a downward pressure, the scarcity of chances to Win Big Golden Smaug decreasing acts as a buoying force.

@leviz8137 3 weeks ago

My LGS has been selling C-boosters at 47.99 and I bought 6. I'm not proud of that but I did it.

@Marcoartur8985 3 weeks ago

I opened 6 collectors, 479 each and was the best experience hahahaha I got at least 1 borderless/ full art of the HOB set, 8/10 book covers and half of the LOTR reprints. Now with trades and finding good prices I'm about to complete all the singles I want. Best experience in my tcg life.

@adamrehsom 3 weeks ago

All dwarvish cards will go up over time

@Azraell01 3 weeks ago

Love the young Barry Gib (Bee Gees) look you have going on looks great on yah.

@TheShapingSickness 3 weeks ago

Missing around 8 cards to complete my collection and that's around 300$ I'm beating my head about how best to approach it to spend the least possible

@TheMindBullets 3 weeks ago

I was stoked to be able to get a Hobbit Gift Bundle and the 1 Collector Booster at Best Buy (at MSRP) on Friday morning last week. Opened em up, and my best cards came out of the normal booster packs. My top card in 2 Collector Booster packs was a $13 card...lol.

@Charlie001-b8k 3 weeks ago

Enjoy it for this is one of the most fun Magic sets to play. 🎉❤️

Congrats on your sisters pulls.

That Arcane Signet is such an Iconic scene in Tolkien books. It will be a card to show to the family for ages.

Pokemon Single Cards has a crash now so hold to your Hobbit cards.

Dont sell too low

@YoungToddo1642 3 weeks ago (edited)

Watching Gleaming Splendor dropping to $34 and Wizard Staff at $4. The waiting game paid off. 🤣

@ZMDPhoenix727 3 weeks ago

Yeah brother got myself a heated pack for MSRP from Best Buy. borderless halfling, foil queen of dale, and surge gandalf. Keeping those in the binder..

@misery3411 3 weeks ago

With this release my old Glamdring has jumped up if i was trying to get rid of it.

@davidrosman9996 3 weeks ago

Hey Joel - I’m with you. Buy singles, wait three months. And the surge flowering is the prettiest card I’ve ever seen. Not the best card. But serviceable. And gorgeous. I want one. The graph seems to have flattened on a lot of this. How much lower before November? What I mean is - if its bottom is 37, I don’t mind buying at 40. If it’s going to 20, then I’d rather have 2!