I don't think this is as complicated as the tale sounds.

"A long time ago there was a magical bat named Dawn." - Elder Flower literally says the bat was named Dawn, openly implying that Luster Dawn did, at some point, become an alicorn for unknown reasons.
"She was surrounded by other bats like her." - I don't think Skyros is involved in this story at all. Being 'surrounded' by other alicorns could very easily be a gathering of Dawn, Twilight, the Sisters, Cadence and Flurry Heart, be it for a family/successor meeting, royal celebration or another occasion.
"But one of the bats refused to get along with the others." - This is Opaline, I think that one's pretty well spelled out.
"This bat wanted to fly around and eat all the fruit for herself." - Ditto.
"So Dawn spoke to a spider who wove a beautiful web to keep the mean greedy bat away." - I think this is likely Twilight and her Invisibubble spell covering Equestria to keep Opaline away, which was alluded to at a few points.
"In the end, Dawn was able to protect their nest." - A little odd mentioning a nest at this point, but that might be either their home or another point at this being a family matter. Not much of substance otherwise.
"Yet the greedy bat continues to this day to try to break the web." - Again, Opaline trying to break through Twilight's Invisibubble.
"Which is why some bats eat fruit and some bats eat insects." - Obviously a curveball line meant as a joke, but it could be a metaphor for gaining magic naturally - the fruit - and taking magic from others - the insects. That makes Opaline the insect-eater in this scenario.

YES! THANK YOU! When she described the wedding I was like "Wait is she talking about the changelings at the royal wedding??"

We might not be as far in the future as I thought if somepony is still alive from back then. Maybe like 5 generations at most? I don't know a unicorn's lifespan compared to earth and pegasi. I do know in FIM we saw more elderly pegasi and earth than we did unicorn implying they live longer

But she also said Moondancer is her great great great great Aunt so there's no way she was born at the time of the wedding. So maybe she heard of it through generations?

I kinda really hope that Elder Flower is actually Discord as a shapeshifted Pony and he's having fun giving them hints without telling them exactly.

Have I told you how I hate my brain for coming with answers for questions no one is asking?

What if the "Twilight's Shield" didn't just prevented Opaline to enter Equestria, but all of the other species as well (including other Alicorns). The reason why Sparky was found in Maretime bay is because he Technically wasn't a dragon, but an egg, and the Breezies were already inside the bubble when it was created.

I feel like Opaline was a LOT scarier in Twilight's time, but thousands of years of isolation took a serious toll on her mind.

There's one thing: "bats" in the story are clearly "ponies": Earth Ponies, Pegasi, Unicorns, Alicorns. Meaning "spider" can't be a pony.

Also, it would help if Misty heard Twilight's message. Since the message was distorted with it, just 5 ponies, then 6. After all, they became the official mane 6 after Misty got her cutie mark and helped her new friends. So, hopefully, we'll get to hear the complete message of what Twilight was saying

Elder flower had the knowledge of ancestors, maybe she was recalling a past live event or mixup with memories of previous ancestor who was at canterlot wedding. I do not recall Elder saying she had visited zephyr height before. And, even twi as a ruler, would be wise to have a sussesor (luster dawn) just in case something happens. I liked you went with all those possible theories, nice touch.

I know everyone dislikes Flurry heart but what about her? At the end of g4 she has a stain glass window in canterlot castle. No one has ever said what she did to get her that stained glass window. So could she have used the crystal heart against opaline and twilight used the Crystal heart broken it into the current crystals and gave them to the guardians? Just a thought

My own theory is that Opaline is the Greedy Bat, then Dawn the bat has to be an alicorn as well. Dawn is similar to Dusk, and Dusk is a synonym of Twilight. I think the other bat is Twilight Sparkle, but I think the spider is Zecora. The spider has to be a different species from the bat, and Twilight has had 3 main magical mentors. Celestia (ruled out cause alicorn), Starswirl (magical and knows protective magic), and Zecora (knows magic and how to get out of tricky situations). Of all of these, I think Zecora is most likely for spider because a zebra is a different species of pony from alicorn and unicorn, she helped Twilight with Starlight's and Twixie's shenanigans and she had spiders in her hair during the nightmare night episodes.

Theory about the crystals: What if they were made to stop Opaline and not the other pony races from fighting? Alicorns, like you said, is the combination of all 3. So having crystals made, to remove and separate the 3 types, would weaken Opaline enough to let the ponies to escape her. We know she is a fire Alicorn so she may have started using dragon magic since it isn't connected to the ponies. Meaning the crystals wouldn't effect that magic the same if she got enough. But everyone was already aware of her. So maybe only old dragons were weak enough for Opaline to take magic from. I assume that because a pony with very weakened magic shouldn't be able to beat a strong and healthy dragon. [If there are any issues with this idea; I'm sorry. I mostly watch this channel for lore about the show and I just thought of it now. I haven't watched much of the actual gen. 5. Sorry if was already explained lol]

Honestly, my interpretation about the alicorns is that they’ve gone extinct sans Opaline. Heck, in Twilight’s time we only saw a handful, and half of those weren’t became Alicorns by artificial means

Elderflower needs her own spinoff series.

Hmm, I personally think the allegory of the spider web may be more of a reference to tartarus rather than a defensive spell cast over equestria. Especially if the magic had begun to fade after the separation of tribes. This loss of magic could affect the effectiveness of said spell. It may be a possibility that Opaline was sent somewhere far away, trapped, (or maybe even possibly reverted from an alicorn back to a unicorn as a consequence of something). I think this would give her a motive to initiate the separation of tribes, possibly to distract the alicorns in charge so she could aquire or gain back her power somehow.  

Just a little mind nugget :b

I think Dawn is Twilight while Spider is the Skyros alicorn.

When you think about it, New Generation isn't as long as we think after FiM.
In the episode "Father of the Bridlewood", Elderflower says "My great, great, great , great Auntie Moondancer"; that's 4 generations, + 1 for basically an Aunite/Niece age gap, then assuming Elderflower is like a Grandmother age to the Mane 6, add another 2 generations.
So that would give us about 7 generations after FiM is set, and assuming pony generations work like humans do (1 generation is 25 - 30 years), at the most, New Generation would be set at about 210 years after FiM.
Here I'm thinking they're making it out to be like a thousand ahah.
Hope my weird explanation makes sense xD

I was hoping someone is finally gonna do a Theorie on it.

I do Also think that elder flower is way older than we actually think.
The only thing that would ruin this Theorie, is if elder flower is actually a descendant of Moon dancer, cause that would indeed ruin the time line.
Or maybe she just mentioned it cause she’s just overall MAD

really liked this video good to see G5 getting some  love reddit been so negative about it it was getting tiersome

I won't watch until the weekend but still your theories are AMAZING!

I viewed it as
Dawn bat is Twilight
Greedy bat is Opaline
Spider is Starlight

One, the spider is the only labeld as another race. And clearly opaline and "dawn" is an alicorn.
That and it's already known that something ahead is reference to as... secrets of starlight or something.

But eh, idk. It's only the way I saw it.


It's probably like
Dawn is Luster
Greedy is opaline
And spider is Chrysalis.
Due to attempt of reformation or something. Kidding though.