The new budget sends a simple message to society: abandon hopes for a normal life. The government will try to squeeze the last vestiges out of the civilian economy – who will suffer? Why does the law restricting cash exports hint at a possible mobilization? What future awaits Elvira Nabiullina next year? Why did Siluanov decide to save money in the National Welfare Fund? Economist Ruben Yenikolopov discusses this in an interview.

00:00 A budget that's squeezing the last vestiges
00:31 "Squeeze all the toothpaste out of the tube": the main message of the 2027 budget
02:50 The priorities are clear: first, war, then what's left
03:28 Should we expect a collapse? The economy is like a frog in a saucepan
04:42 How much longer can Russians endure is not a question for economists
06:35 The weakest point: where the crisis could explode
07:49 Optimism has given way to anxiety, and money has fled the country
11:11 Cash export limit: who is it really aimed at?
13:06 A sign of a second wave of mobilization?
14:00 Where to invest in Russia? "The chips are already sold out"
14:47 National debt at 17% of GDP: Why Putin is being dishonest
16:45 Why is Russian debt so expensive?
17:36 Who is really to blame for the high interest rate?
19:04 A time bomb in state banks
20:47 "Voluntary" purchases of OFZs: What non-market methods look like
22:31 Two logics in the Kremlin: the market or "the party ordered it"
24:39 What will happen if Nabiullina leaves
26:03 Deposits after the new tax: still make sense? 29:14 Why the key rate if the market has a life of its own?
31:08 Inflation expectations – a "self-fulfilling curse"
32:23 Is it time for the Central Bank to raise the rate?
34:41 Who suffers the most, and it's not the oligarchs?
36:14 Why the perception of inflation is more important than inflation itself?
37:07 Will the 2027 budget be fulfilled? The elephant in the room is military spending.
38:56 Oil, Trump, and Iran: What determines the deficit?
39:38 Why new sanctions are not worth expecting.
41:37 US elections, which the Kremlin is underestimating.
42:17 How the war in Iran helped Putin.
44:04 The invisible effect: The West is weakening, the Kremlin is raising rates.
47:36 The war of attrition at the limit. What's next? 48:28 National Welfare Fund: Why save, borrowing at huge interest rates?
51:23 Piggy bank for a "golden helicopter"?

HOST:
Bogdan Bakaleyko, journalist @BogdanBakaleyko

GUEST:
Ruben Yenikolopov, economist, former rector of the New Economic School

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#milov #mobilization #war #economy #inflation