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You can find out more about RAND’s research on Truth Decay here:
https://www.rand.org/research/projects/truth-decay/why-cant-we-agree-on-the-facts.html

You can read RAND's tips for how to tackle Truth Decay here:
https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/03/truth-decay-is-a-threat-to-democracy-heres-what-you.html

And if you really want to dig in, RAND’s full report is here:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html

I remember back in the 1980s there were several scientists who were quoted anonymously as saying that Sagan's nuclear winter was was totally wrong. Out of frustration, one journalist asked one such  scientist, if he  was so sure why didn't he state it on the record. He said, I don't want to sound like I'm arguing for nuclear war.

Being honest is more important than being right. Great job, Neil.

The problem with overstating dangers is that once enough overstated dangers are recognized people are going to start believing that every danger is exaggerated, which you can already see happening in the world. Being dishonest about dangers leads to people nolonger believing in the stated danger.

One of the largest reasons to not over report or dramatize the facts is because once skeptics or even unsure moderates see the ones who we've been told to trust are caught doing such, it creates even more uncertainty than there usually would have been compared to if those same authorities simply told the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Even if you gain more sympathy and support because of fear mongering the most extreme case, you lose the same amount of support from those who are  genuinely trying to find the truth and were instead lied to. Great video!

This made me remember something my grandma recently told me due to certain anxieties from watching the news, “Honey, I’ve lived through so many supposed disasters than never happened, so many things that were supposed to kill us all that never did, I think we’re fine”. Even if this isn’t exactly an optimistic view, and a bit apathetic, it shows clearly one thing: the media can only be so dramatic and fearmongering for so long before people start tuning it out.

The key hear is that despite Nuclear winter being debatable, the effects of nuclear war are still catastrophic. From collapse of infrastructure to mass amounts of death, it still remains a no win scenario for those waging it.

Great video.

The thing is, you don't even need nuclear winter to feel nuclear exchange is a bad idea. We've already seen how a global pandemic and the ensuing economic slowdown has already impacted the world at large. Imagine how wiping some of the world's largest economic centers would fuck up our current way of life

A good example of how overstated risks  can lead to adverse outcomes is nuclear energy. The hysterical overstatement of the risks associated with nuclear energy has led to a situation where climate change is now a lot worse than it would otherwise have been.

As someone who lived through the cold war I can assure you we were thinking about this scenario on the daily. Looking back on it were insane to think that was normal.

"In the nuclear world. The true enemy is war itself." From the film Crimson Tide.

This guy is like a shining light of reason in a world that seems to be increasingly ridiculous. Thank you for this amazing breath of fresh air.

I want to express my deep respect for your approach in handling this sensitive subject. Your method of finding common ground on polarizing topics is impressive, and I admire it. I plan on sharing this video as an example of the importance of prioritizing facts over feelings, especially to those who hold conflicting beliefs. Thank you for setting a positive precedent that we can all learn from.

The amount of personal integrity and decency in this video is staggering. The guy admits to things he has been wrong about,, and even admits that he doesn’t like to acknowledge the truth because it is at odds with his political identity,  and as a result I now trust information coming from his channel even more, and I suspect I’m not alone. Other commentators and news outlets should take notes. This is how trust in news media can be restored.

It may hurt to admit when the facts don’t support your political views, but on the other hand, so does cognitive dissonance, and the only way to get rid of both sources of pain is to change your mind. So, just rip that bandaid off, when you discover that you are wrong about something.

I have been scared of a nuclear holocaust since I was 4 years old and I approve this message. I also approve the general intellectual honesty displayed.

Truth hurts and admitting you were wrong hurts even more, but all of our greatest advances came from admitting our assumptions were wrong and looking at facts without fear or favor, challenging our most beloved conceits, and throwing them away if they didn't measure up. We only reach new heights by dethroning our champions.

I can't say thank you enough for making this, it is so refreshing to hear someone admit that they made a mistake. We all do it. But we need each other to be honest so we can really get to what the truth might be.

As a nuclear physicist (neutron/proton structure research), I applaud you for taking this step to clarify the nuclear winter threat.  I have long questioned the underlying assumptions that have gone into the early models for nuclear winter but didn't have the resources or connections to perform my own calculations.  I even had a brief conversation several years ago with Dr. Robock about his work on even a limited war between Pakistan and India resulting in climate catastrophe. Again, I was ill equipped to argue the points so let it lay as is.  

I am reminded of a quote from George E.P. Box.  "All models are wrong.  Some are useful."  

Now, nearly 25 years after starting my career in physics, I have come to a disturbing conclusion.  Scientists are absolutely capable of biased thinking and reporting and will bend the ear to anyone willing to listen.  I suppose that is part of being human.

Maybe the Cookie Monster didn’t bake all those cookies

Great video.  While nuclear winter and climate change by themselves may not be world-ending events, civilization as we know it, seems pretty fragile. The compounding of things like these, along with conventional wars, terrorism, culture wars, natural catastrophes, and truth decay, may be enough to disrupt civilization to the point that life will become as uncertain as it was in the Dark Ages.