【米価予測】次の米高騰は2030年前後？カギは団塊の世代の「これからの3年」
米づくり解説 -ハッピーベジタブル-
34,986 views
[When will rice prices skyrocket?] A 5kg bag of rice at the supermarket dropped from 4,416 yen during the New Year's holiday to 2,971 yen in September. Despite all the factors for a price surge, prices continue to fall.
What is "holding back" this price increase, and when will that "lid" be removed? From a rice farmer's perspective, we'll consider the next 10 years, broken down by age group.
[Related Video]
This video discusses in more detail how I envision the "connection with consumers" mentioned in Chapter 7.
👉 【新技術】ひこばえ栽培・成功マニュアル｜収量を爆増させる鍵は「刈り高さ40cm」と「...
[Announcement]
We're currently streaming behind-the-scenes glimpses of our daily activities and event planning in real time!
👉 Click here for Ryu-san's LINE "Open Chat"
https://line.me/ti/g2/nGHD40lsmyEDIV9...
We've also started a "Vegetable Gardening Explanation" channel that shares tips for home gardening!
👉 @831hapveg
【Timestamps】
▼ Video Content
0:00 When will rice prices skyrocket? The ingredients are all there, but what's holding it back?
3:11 [Chapter 1] Rice price drops by 30% in 8 months: 4,416 yen in New Year's → 2,971 yen in September.
5:21 [Chapter 2] Just 4-5% short and it doubles! Rice is a "game of musical chairs"
9:57 [Chapter 3] Food Control Law, Rice Production Reduction, Stockpiling. Why have the government's "dams" stopped working?
14:26 [Chapter 4] All the ingredients for a price surge are in place. But there are four "lids" in place.
19:19 [Chapter 5] The biggest lid is "producers who continue to produce even at a loss." Will it be removed around 2030?
25:35 [Chapter 6] 75 years and older, 60s, 40s-50s, 30s and under. The next 10 years by age group.
32:40 [Chapter 7] Who will bear the burden of rice instability? The dilemma of large-scale production and "rice farming as a side business."
38:00 Summary: The next price surge will come after the lids on producers are removed.
40:20 What is your age group and what are your concerns? Let's share our stories.
Why do rice prices fluctuate so much? This video reviews the price surges and drops of the past two years based on supermarket prices, explaining why rice is a commodity whose price doubles with just a 4-5% shortage in total production. This is due to factors such as daily consumption making it undesirable to wait, the fact that it's only harvested once a year, and the difficulty in predicting supply chains. Furthermore, it examines how the government has previously controlled prices through the Food Control Act, rice production reduction programs, and stockpiling, and why these measures didn't work effectively this time. Despite the presence of factors that would normally lead to price increases—a decrease in producers, extreme heat, dwindling stockpiles, and rising material costs—why prices are falling. We'll discuss four "lids"—the mountain of inventory, decreased consumption, government and imports, and producers who continue to produce even at a loss—and why the next three years, as the baby boomer generation surpasses 80, will be crucial. Finally, we consider how different age groups—those 75 and over/early 70s, those in their 60s/50s, and those in their 40s/30s—should approach the next 10 years.
[About the information in this video]
This information is based on verification data and supply and demand forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the 2025 Agriculture and Forestry Census, and reports from universities and research institutions.
The timing of the "next price surge" is my assessment based on these materials and is not a definitive prediction. The trend can change significantly depending on the weather and government policies.
For major decisions such as upgrading machinery or expanding scale, please consult with your local JA (Japan Agricultural Cooperatives), extension officers, and tax accountants.
[Editor's Note]
What I felt most strongly while researching the history of rice prices this time was that rice is a commodity where even a "small discrepancy" can lead to "large price fluctuations." With prices currently low, many people are probably wondering what to do next year. However, the next time rice will be in short supply will come as a result of a decrease in producers. You can choose where you stand at that time, starting now. As someone who grows rice in a small paddy field in a mountainous area, I would like to think about this together with all of you.
[Channel Information]
This channel features Tome-san, who is currently studying rice farming, explaining what he has learned in an easy-to-understand way.
Farmers and those interested in agriculture alike, please subscribe to the channel and check it out!
YouTube Channel: @tano41com
Business Inquiries: https://forms.gle/xGssx42FRMg1yJRD7
#ricefarming #ricecultivation #agriculture #riceprice #ricefarmer
20 Comments
圃場整備も高齢者ばかりでもういいと言う方もいましたが結局賛同し、自己負担金だし1枚2反位の田が多くなりましたが、その圃場整備した田んぼもイノシシの楽園になっています
今から防ぐのは不可能です。
その頃に消費者・国民はようやく現状認識をして方針を固める…ですがその頃にはしばらく高い米に苦しめられることになりそうです。
全てが遅かった…。
燃料高・物価高・円安・金利高…あらゆることが最悪なタイミングで重なってしまった。
飢える人も、中にはいるかもしれません。
結果そうなったら、時間とカネ（余計にかかった治療費）何ちゃならん。
それに、身近にそんな話聞くだけで、「農業なんかやりたくない。」と農家の跡取り連中が拒絶反応起こすのも仕方ない。潜水士や、宇宙飛行士が命がけで仕事に挑むのは、それだけの名誉と報酬が得られるから。やればやるだけ赤字になるだけの仕事に、命がけを強いるのは、ちゃんちゃらおかしい（可笑しい）
地元北東北は出穂時期の長雨による不稔障害、全国的には秋の収穫時期の長雨・大雨による稲の倒伏・収穫送れによる品質低下！
でも今年の作況指数発表無いんだっっけ？
来年まではミニマムアクセス制度の限界量輸入と今年の在庫米で相場維持が計られるでしょうが、消費減税による前倒しの仕入れコストの負担とＪＡの概算金の上げ渋りにより大規模農家の経営予想が困難になることにより不安定な生産体制が起きることが予想されるからです。
とりあえず来年は免税事業者もインボイス登録して消費税還付受けられるようにしようね。
でも、米価がこのような状況だから1俵20000円以上で買ってくれねぇから一揆とかなら支持出来るのですが
農家の団体交渉ですよ😊
基準収入の9割を下回った場合、下がった分の最大9割を国と積立金から補填
しかも、保険料や積立金の半分は国からの補助金が入ります。
ますます国は大規模化、法人化を進めていくと思います。
ただ9％減収でも大規模は結構な損失だろうから。10％損失で保険がきくこの境目、経営手腕が問われるのかも。
【米価予測】次の米高騰は2030年前後？カギは団塊の世代の「これからの3年」
米づくり解説 -ハッピーベジタブル-
34,986 views
[When will rice prices skyrocket?] A 5kg bag of rice at the supermarket dropped from 4,416 yen during the New Year's holiday to 2,971 yen in September. Despite all the factors for a price surge, prices continue to fall.
What is "holding back" this price increase, and when will that "lid" be removed? From a rice farmer's perspective, we'll consider the next 10 years, broken down by age group.
[Related Video]
This video discusses in more detail how I envision the "connection with consumers" mentioned in Chapter 7.
👉 【新技術】ひこばえ栽培・成功マニュアル｜収量を爆増させる鍵は「刈り高さ40cm」と「...
[Announcement]
We're currently streaming behind-the-scenes glimpses of our daily activities and event planning in real time!
👉 Click here for Ryu-san's LINE "Open Chat"
https://line.me/ti/g2/nGHD40lsmyEDIV9...
We've also started a "Vegetable Gardening Explanation" channel that shares tips for home gardening!
👉 @831hapveg
【Timestamps】
▼ Video Content
0:00 When will rice prices skyrocket? The ingredients are all there, but what's holding it back?
3:11 [Chapter 1] Rice price drops by 30% in 8 months: 4,416 yen in New Year's → 2,971 yen in September.
5:21 [Chapter 2] Just 4-5% short and it doubles! Rice is a "game of musical chairs"
9:57 [Chapter 3] Food Control Law, Rice Production Reduction, Stockpiling. Why have the government's "dams" stopped working?
14:26 [Chapter 4] All the ingredients for a price surge are in place. But there are four "lids" in place.
19:19 [Chapter 5] The biggest lid is "producers who continue to produce even at a loss." Will it be removed around 2030?
25:35 [Chapter 6] 75 years and older, 60s, 40s-50s, 30s and under. The next 10 years by age group.
32:40 [Chapter 7] Who will bear the burden of rice instability? The dilemma of large-scale production and "rice farming as a side business."
38:00 Summary: The next price surge will come after the lids on producers are removed.
40:20 What is your age group and what are your concerns? Let's share our stories.
Why do rice prices fluctuate so much? This video reviews the price surges and drops of the past two years based on supermarket prices, explaining why rice is a commodity whose price doubles with just a 4-5% shortage in total production. This is due to factors such as daily consumption making it undesirable to wait, the fact that it's only harvested once a year, and the difficulty in predicting supply chains. Furthermore, it examines how the government has previously controlled prices through the Food Control Act, rice production reduction programs, and stockpiling, and why these measures didn't work effectively this time. Despite the presence of factors that would normally lead to price increases—a decrease in producers, extreme heat, dwindling stockpiles, and rising material costs—why prices are falling. We'll discuss four "lids"—the mountain of inventory, decreased consumption, government and imports, and producers who continue to produce even at a loss—and why the next three years, as the baby boomer generation surpasses 80, will be crucial. Finally, we consider how different age groups—those 75 and over/early 70s, those in their 60s/50s, and those in their 40s/30s—should approach the next 10 years.
[About the information in this video]
This information is based on verification data and supply and demand forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the 2025 Agriculture and Forestry Census, and reports from universities and research institutions.
The timing of the "next price surge" is my assessment based on these materials and is not a definitive prediction. The trend can change significantly depending on the weather and government policies.
For major decisions such as upgrading machinery or expanding scale, please consult with your local JA (Japan Agricultural Cooperatives), extension officers, and tax accountants.
[Editor's Note]
What I felt most strongly while researching the history of rice prices this time was that rice is a commodity where even a "small discrepancy" can lead to "large price fluctuations." With prices currently low, many people are probably wondering what to do next year. However, the next time rice will be in short supply will come as a result of a decrease in producers. You can choose where you stand at that time, starting now. As someone who grows rice in a small paddy field in a mountainous area, I would like to think about this together with all of you.
[Channel Information]
This channel features Tome-san, who is currently studying rice farming, explaining what he has learned in an easy-to-understand way.
Farmers and those interested in agriculture alike, please subscribe to the channel and check it out!
YouTube Channel: @tano41com
Business Inquiries: https://forms.gle/xGssx42FRMg1yJRD7
#ricefarming #ricecultivation #agriculture #riceprice #ricefarmer