Rory Sutherland's 2026 Predictions @ The Drum Labs
The Drum
579,888 views
Speaking at The Drum’s Predictions 2026, the vice-chairman of Ogilvy UK warned that businesses are sleepwalking into a future defined by cost-cutting and regulatory fear. AI, he argued, is being sold in exactly the wrong way and marketers will pay the price if they don’t push back.
Rory Sutherland did not open his Predictions session with optimism. “My predictions for 2026 are slightly pessimistic,” he said, before outlining what he sees as the dominant mindset across much of business.
“Most businesses only have two principal modes,” he argued. “Cost reduction and regulatory paranoia. Don’t fall foul of the regulator. Don’t have a reputational disaster. Spend as little money as you can.”
Marketing and innovation, he said, sit uncomfortably outside that worldview. And AI, for all the excitement around it, risks being pulled firmly into the same cost-obsessed logic.
“The bill for AI is going to come due,” Sutherland said. “Insane amounts of money have been spent. So how do you sell it to clients? The easiest way is cost reduction.”
To explain the danger, he returned to one of his favorite analogies, what he calls the “doorman fallacy.” Strip a doorman’s job down to opening a door, replace them with an automatic system and celebrate the savings. What disappears from the spreadsheet is everything else the doorman did: security, recognition, reassurance, status.
“You walk away not being held remotely responsible for any of the value destroyed,” Sutherland said.
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20 Comments
How anyone in a hospitality business could even think about greeting potential guests with an AI is beyond me.
Fundamentally, I think the issue is the "good enough" approach to product management. There isn't really a belief that "great" is to be strived for. What they want is a minimum viable product that costs as little as possible. Which can make sense if you're selling nuts and bolts, but doesn't quite work with expensive consumer products. When you're asking individuals to pay large sums of their money on your product the details matter. It isn't just the product that they care about, it's whether they feel they're partnering with an organization which values their business. Every inconvenience with that product is magnified in their brain, and every cost savings is irrelevant to them. The issue is that you can't easily describe the costs involved in having a shitty product. But the bean counters can easily count how cheap it is to skimp on a fundamental aspect of the product.
And especially in the public services, governments of all colours have been "cost cutting" for decades: NHS, Education, Police, Criminal Justice, Prisons, Defence, Environment, Local government and the result : NOTHING WORKS !
Rory Sutherland's 2026 Predictions @ The Drum Labs
The Drum
579,888 views
Speaking at The Drum’s Predictions 2026, the vice-chairman of Ogilvy UK warned that businesses are sleepwalking into a future defined by cost-cutting and regulatory fear. AI, he argued, is being sold in exactly the wrong way and marketers will pay the price if they don’t push back.
Rory Sutherland did not open his Predictions session with optimism. “My predictions for 2026 are slightly pessimistic,” he said, before outlining what he sees as the dominant mindset across much of business.
“Most businesses only have two principal modes,” he argued. “Cost reduction and regulatory paranoia. Don’t fall foul of the regulator. Don’t have a reputational disaster. Spend as little money as you can.”
Marketing and innovation, he said, sit uncomfortably outside that worldview. And AI, for all the excitement around it, risks being pulled firmly into the same cost-obsessed logic.
“The bill for AI is going to come due,” Sutherland said. “Insane amounts of money have been spent. So how do you sell it to clients? The easiest way is cost reduction.”
To explain the danger, he returned to one of his favorite analogies, what he calls the “doorman fallacy.” Strip a doorman’s job down to opening a door, replace them with an automatic system and celebrate the savings. What disappears from the spreadsheet is everything else the doorman did: security, recognition, reassurance, status.
“You walk away not being held remotely responsible for any of the value destroyed,” Sutherland said.
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