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Donald Trump has gone further against Iran than any American president before him -- and then, almost overnight, pivoted toward a ceasefire, negotiations, and open frustration with Israel. What's happening? What does it all mean for Iran's nuclear ambitions, American power, the US–Israel alliance, and the future of war?

In this episode, we sit down with Matthew Continetti of the American Enterprise Institute to unpack the emerging Iran deal, the politics inside the Trump administration, JD Vance’s rising influence, the strategic meaning of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and why missiles, drones, and interceptors may define the next generation of warfare.

Matthew Continetti is the director of domestic policy studies and the inaugural Patrick and Charlene Neal Chair in American Prosperity at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) as well as a columnist for the Wall Street Journal's "Free Expression" newsletter. He has been published in The Atlantic, The New York Times, and The Washington Post, The Free Press, National Review among other outlets. Mr. Continetti is the author of three books, including, most recently, The Right: The Hundred-Year War for American Conservatism (Basic Books, 2022).

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This week’s episode is sponsored by Cyril Khazan from Woodmere, New York, who asked to dedicate the episode "to the memory of my dad. Raised in the dark shadow of Babyn Yar, amid post-Second World War rampant antisemitism, he still taught me open-mindedness, inclusivity, and pride in being Jewish, warts and all. Thank you for upholding these values on your podcast."

Thank you, Cyril.

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If you like what we do here, please consider joining our Patreon community at Patreon: AskHavivAnything or our Substack at https://havivgur.substack.com/. You can also Buy Me a Coffee at https://buymeacoffee.com/havivrettiggur. It helps us keep the lights on. Patreon and Substack are also the platforms where you can ask the questions that guide the topics we cover on the podcast, join our great discussions where listeners share news and valuable resources, and take part in our monthly livestreams where Haviv answers your questions live.

If you would like to sponsor an episode, please email us at haviv@askhavivanything.com⁠.

Musical intro by Adam Ben Amitai.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to the Iran Deal Discussion
03:14 Trump's Ceasefire and Its Implications
06:03 The Nature of the Current Deal
08:58 Iran's Narrative and American Response
11:36 The Broader Geopolitical Context
14:46 Military Gains vs. Political Strategy
17:37 Domestic Politics and the Administration's Approach
20:24 The Role of Key Figures in the Administration
23:41 Negotiation Dynamics with Iran
26:25 Trump's Unconventional Approach to War
29:38 The Future of U.S.-Iran Relations
32:26 Conclusion and Reflections on American Power
36:55 The Fraying Coalition: Trump and Vance's Political Landscape
39:40 Navigating Diplomatic Challenges: Vance's Role in Foreign Policy
43:34 Understanding Ideology: The Complexity of Negotiations with Iran
49:44 The Future of Warfare: Lessons from Recent Conflicts
57:28 The Shifting Dynamics of US-Israel Relations