In this episode of Pijlers en DefensieDialoog, a production of PijlersPlatform, an interview with former MIVD Director Pieter Cobelens. Location: The Malabar at Hotel Jakarta in Amsterdam.

Searching Superpowers and the Position of Europe
The recent dynamics of the meeting between XI and Trump in Washington show that traditional superpowers are searching. While the United States is failing to fully achieve its goals in Iran and President Putin is struggling to bring Ukraine under control, China—which is investing heavily in military capacity—is also sensitive to fluctuations in global trade. According to Pieter Cobelens, we must realize that we are dealing with autocrats who are primarily redefining their position.

This directly affects the relationship between Europe and the United States. Many Europeans grew up with the image of America as the ultimate protector and unconditional ally. Yet, it is time for a more realistic and pragmatic worldview. Europe has neglected its own defense for decades and, due to the lack of a unified foreign and defense policy, is not yet capable of simply taking over America's role. According to Cobelens, a rigorous break with the US is therefore unwise; the focus must first and foremost be on restoring our own strength and safeguarding NATO foundations (such as Article 5).

Financial resilience of the Netherlands
Strengthening defense and maintaining our prosperity costs money. But while politicians are quick to point to necessary cuts in healthcare or education, Cobelens prefers to look at the income and asset positions of the Netherlands. He points to three major pots that remain untapped or underexposed:

1. The soil: The billions in value of gas in Groningen, for which the people of Groningen themselves must be directly and generously compensated.

2. Private wealth: The enormous buffers in Dutch savings accounts. 3. Pension funds: Large funds such as the ABP must critically examine their investment policy and social responsibility regarding the defense industry. ‘The ABP refused to invest in the defense industry for a long time because board members like Paul Rosenmöller allowed their own political preferences to prevail.’ Even now, Cobelens sees ‘no concrete, large-scale examples where a portion of the enormous assets is channeled into major defense projects.’

Does democracy need an overhaul?

According to Cobelens, democracy threatens to bog down in endless consultation, legal proceedings, and delays. He is, of course, not advocating for a dictatorship, but he does emphasize that we must dare to consider unorthodox measures and emergency legislation in times of acute crisis. The complexity of the current political landscape with fragmented parties hinders effective governance. Ultimately, the long-term goal for Europe should be stronger, federative cooperation.

Threat of war, sabotage, and realism
How real is the threat of a Third World War? Cobelens warns against blindly adopting these kinds of grand, frightening terms. Conflicts today begin gradually and manifest themselves through hybrid warfare: harassment, cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage.

Although intelligence services warn of increased risks of sabotage and potential drone attacks on the European eastern flank and beyond, we must not allow ourselves to be paralyzed by panic. However, he does call for greater resilience and less complacent behavior among the population. Think of basic preparations, taking reservists seriously for ‘our safety and deterrence,’ and protecting our critical infrastructure.

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Interview: Paul van Liempt, direction and content: Rob Vermaas, make-up: Karin Campagne. #Defense #Pieter Cobelens #NATO #Russia #Ukraine #Drones #Cybersecurity #DefenseIndustry #Security #Geopolitics #Europe #Innovation #HybridWar #AI #Netherlands #HotelJakartaAmsterdam