なぜ台湾侵攻は「ノルマンディーより難しい」のか【地理学×兵站学】
ミリタリースタジオ
5,362 views
In 2023, the American research institution CSIS simulated 24 Chinese landing operations on Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait is approximately 160 kilometers wide—roughly the same distance the Allied forces crossed during the 1944 Normandy landings. Yet, why is landing so difficult? This analysis, using maps and animation, explores four major obstacles: "transportable resources," "suitable seasons," "accessible beaches," and "resupply after landing." It also examines Japan's potential involvement in this conflict.
*Note: CSIS's tabletop exercises are not predictions of the future, but rather the result of simulating battles under varying conditions. *The finding that "April and October are the most suitable months for landings" is based on researcher Ian Easton's analysis.
▼Chapters 0:00 Introduction: 24 Simulations 0:38 First Obstacle: Transport Capacity (Compared to Normandy) 2:58 Second Obstacle: Seasons for Crossing 4:18 Third Obstacle: Accessible Beaches and Post-Landing Conditions 6:23 The Sea Has Changed in 30 Years (1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis) 7:13 Results of the 24 Simulations 11:13 Japan's Involvement 12:10 Summary
▼Main References ・Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, Eric Heginbotham, "The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan," CSIS (January 2023) ・Ian Easton, "The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia" (2017) ・Wikipedia (English): Normandy landings / Operation Fortitude / Mulberry harbour / James Stagg / Third Taiwan Strait Crisis / Operation Causeway / Italian Campaign (World War II) / Yushan (mountain) / Yonaguni • US Department of Defense "Casualty Status" (number of casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan) • Distance: Taiwan Strait approx. 160km (CSIS report). Other distances were calculated independently based on the distance between two points on the map (Portsmouth to Omaha Beach approx. 160km, Dover to Calais approx. 43km, Yonaguni Island to Taiwan approx. 110km). *Numbers are estimates and averages from the report. Some of the map areas (missile range, etc.) and attack locations in the video are for illustrative purposes only.
▼Video and Image Materials ・Satellite map images: NASA Blue Marble (NASA GIBS) ・Map data: Natural Earth (Public Domain) ・Photographs (Public Domain): U.S. Navy (Aircraft carrier John C. Stennis and Ronald Reagan 2016 / JS Hyuga and U.S. fleet / Aircraft carrier Independence 1996), U.S. Army Signal Corps (Tank landing ship at Omaha Beach 1944), Robert F. Sargent / U.S. Coast Guard "Into the Jaws of Death" (1944), Imperial War Museum (Artificial harbor Mulberry BU 1024 / Fake tank H 42531 / James Stagg CH 14235), NASA (MODIS satellite imagery October 2024), DARPA (LRASM launch test from B-1B), U.S. Air Force (F-15s at Kadena Air Base), William Lionel Wyllie "V Beach" (circa 1915) • Photo (CC BY-SA 3.0 DE): Bundesarchiv, Bild 101I-719-0240-05 / Jesse / Bild 101I-719-0243-33 / Jesse • Photo (CC BY-SA 3.0): Yushan Peak / Peellden • Photo (CC BY-SA 4.0): Qingshui Cliffs / Huaiwun / Gaomei Wetlands / Philoschen
#Taiwan #TaiwanCrisis #Normandy #Logistics #Geopolitics #Military #CSIS
13 Comments
だが、キンペーと一緒に批判している奴は知らないというか、そもそも理解する気がない。もしくは、理解しているからこそ一緒になってキレ散らかしている。
本当にバカは救えない。
台湾がソロで中国に勝てるわけないのはみんな分かってるでしょう
陸軍装備も主力はまだM60だっけ？
M1も導入されてるみたいだけど、まだまだ増強せないかん
一般的には中国の方が優勢だ、台湾なんて島国は軍艦で包囲するだけで干上がって降伏するがメインシナリオだ。ウクライナみたいNATOと陸続きじゃないんだ。
なぜ台湾侵攻は「ノルマンディーより難しい」のか【地理学×兵站学】
ミリタリースタジオ
5,362 views
In 2023, the American research institution CSIS simulated 24 Chinese landing operations on Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait is approximately 160 kilometers wide—roughly the same distance the Allied forces crossed during the 1944 Normandy landings. Yet, why is landing so difficult? This analysis, using maps and animation, explores four major obstacles: "transportable resources," "suitable seasons," "accessible beaches," and "resupply after landing." It also examines Japan's potential involvement in this conflict.
*Note: CSIS's tabletop exercises are not predictions of the future, but rather the result of simulating battles under varying conditions. *The finding that "April and October are the most suitable months for landings" is based on researcher Ian Easton's analysis.
▼Chapters 0:00 Introduction: 24 Simulations 0:38 First Obstacle: Transport Capacity (Compared to Normandy) 2:58 Second Obstacle: Seasons for Crossing 4:18 Third Obstacle: Accessible Beaches and Post-Landing Conditions 6:23 The Sea Has Changed in 30 Years (1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis) 7:13 Results of the 24 Simulations 11:13 Japan's Involvement 12:10 Summary
▼Main References ・Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, Eric Heginbotham, "The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan," CSIS (January 2023) ・Ian Easton, "The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia" (2017) ・Wikipedia (English): Normandy landings / Operation Fortitude / Mulberry harbour / James Stagg / Third Taiwan Strait Crisis / Operation Causeway / Italian Campaign (World War II) / Yushan (mountain) / Yonaguni • US Department of Defense "Casualty Status" (number of casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan) • Distance: Taiwan Strait approx. 160km (CSIS report). Other distances were calculated independently based on the distance between two points on the map (Portsmouth to Omaha Beach approx. 160km, Dover to Calais approx. 43km, Yonaguni Island to Taiwan approx. 110km). *Numbers are estimates and averages from the report. Some of the map areas (missile range, etc.) and attack locations in the video are for illustrative purposes only.
▼Video and Image Materials ・Satellite map images: NASA Blue Marble (NASA GIBS) ・Map data: Natural Earth (Public Domain) ・Photographs (Public Domain): U.S. Navy (Aircraft carrier John C. Stennis and Ronald Reagan 2016 / JS Hyuga and U.S. fleet / Aircraft carrier Independence 1996), U.S. Army Signal Corps (Tank landing ship at Omaha Beach 1944), Robert F. Sargent / U.S. Coast Guard "Into the Jaws of Death" (1944), Imperial War Museum (Artificial harbor Mulberry BU 1024 / Fake tank H 42531 / James Stagg CH 14235), NASA (MODIS satellite imagery October 2024), DARPA (LRASM launch test from B-1B), U.S. Air Force (F-15s at Kadena Air Base), William Lionel Wyllie "V Beach" (circa 1915) • Photo (CC BY-SA 3.0 DE): Bundesarchiv, Bild 101I-719-0240-05 / Jesse / Bild 101I-719-0243-33 / Jesse • Photo (CC BY-SA 3.0): Yushan Peak / Peellden • Photo (CC BY-SA 4.0): Qingshui Cliffs / Huaiwun / Gaomei Wetlands / Philoschen
#Taiwan #TaiwanCrisis #Normandy #Logistics #Geopolitics #Military #CSIS
①台湾の官民が抵抗を諦めさせる。
②米軍に参戦させない。
③日本に米軍に基地を使用させない(補給させない)。
④日本(主に沖縄)やフィリピンに地対艦及び地対空ミサイルを配備させない。
台湾は香港やウイグル・チベットの末路を見ているので抵抗を諦めたら自国がなくなると知っています。米国は中国が台湾の東岸の港を自国領に組み込めば、そこから核ミサイルを積んだ原潜を自由に太平洋に潜航させることができ、自国の海上覇権がなくなることを知っているので必ず参戦します。
結果として台米日の中で日本が一番揺らぎ易くなっています。だから日本に執拗な心理的揺さぶりをかけて来ているわけです。日本の国会議員を取り込もうとしたり、国会で左翼政党の議員に執拗にミサイル配備の状況を質問させたり、沖縄の選挙に介入するのもこれが動機です。高市首相は「台湾有事に際して、日本は台湾と米軍を支援する」という言葉を決して撤回するべきではありません。高市首相がコミットメントを撤回したら、中国は喜んで台湾侵略を開始します。