📌 Cast

Host: MC Lee Jong-won

Caster: Caster Lee Jung-woo

Expert 1: Heo Ban-seok | CEO of Momentum Tree

Expert 2: Kim Dong-yeop | CEO of S1 Investment Research Institute

Expert 3: Choi Chang-gyu | Head of ETF Research Division, Mirae Asset Management

Production: PD Kim Kyung-yoon, Writer Kim A-rang, AD Moon Ji-hyun

▶ 20261008 The War Room Part 2

▶ Thursday 21:00~21:50

💡 Today's Code Name Key Point (Should have taken profits when they were coming!): Despite Samsung Electronics announcing record-breaking earnings for the third quarter that exceeded market expectations with consolidated revenue of 195 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, the KOSPI fell 2.62% to the 6,625 level. The number of declining stocks has exceeded 1,800, driven by a combination of profit-taking sales and supply and demand gaps resulting from semiconductor ETF rebalancing, option expiration, and the end of share buybacks (Samsung Electronics this week, SK Hynix next week). However, while maintaining a 30% cash weight and focusing on the support level of 890 on the KOSDAQ and the possibility of a rebound near 6,625 on the KOSPI, investors should exercise patience rather than aggressive stop-loss selling to identify opportunities for rotational trading centered on optical communications, semiconductor materials and components, power infrastructure, and secondary batteries.

⚔️ Supply and Demand Analysis Room

📉 ① Should I Buy – Secondary Batteries (Surprise Charge Complete)

Kim Dong-yup: LG Energy Solution recorded a surprise Q3 operating profit of 756 billion won (330 billion won excluding tax credits), more than double the consensus, thanks to a recovery in North American ESS and European electric vehicle shipments. As the sector enters a diversified growth trajectory driven by ESS from AI data centers following EVs, attention should be paid to large-cap stocks collaborating on solid-state batteries, such as Samsung SDI and EcoPro BM, as well as materials stocks like Daejoo Electronic Materials.

Choi Chang-kyu: Proving a turnaround in core business profitability, the company generated an operating profit of 339.1 billion won even excluding AMPC. As ESS is establishing itself as a core pillar of batteries in the AI ​​era, going beyond merely compensating for EV sluggishness, it is effective to focus on solid companies with secured ESS order backlogs and North American production competitiveness, rather than chasing oversold stocks.

📉 ② Sell-Out – Bio (Emergency Measures Here and There)

Kim Dong-yeop: Peptron went straight to the lower limit following news that it concluded its technology evaluation with Eli Lilly without signing a definitive contract. Simultaneously, negative factors were reflected across the bio sector, including Alteogen's European patent dispute regarding Keytruda SC and profit-taking sales following the approval of Hanmi Pharmaceutical's new obesity drug. As the expectation premium is fading, rebalancing should be centered on Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, and CDMOs (ST Pharm, Pharmicel), whose actual revenue and commercialization cash flow have been verified.

Choi Chang-kyu: With the conclusion of the technology evaluation, the expectation premium for technology exports has sharply diminished due to the failure of definitive contracts. It is necessary to re-verify actual sales market share following new drug approval and the authenticity of partnerships with global big pharma companies; for the time being, managing weight within the bio sector and distinguishing between wheat and chaff based on cash flow is essential.

📝 Next Week's IF Report

① What if the Democratic Party wins a landslide victory in the US midterm elections? (Highlight of renewable energy vs. Still AI-related stocks) – Kim Dong-yeop

If the argument for slowing down the pace of AI among Democratic leaders like Obama gains traction, it is highly likely that the renewable energy sector—such as solar and wind power—which is expected to receive large-scale fiscal injections, and the eco-friendly secondary battery sector will secure new leading momentum.

② What if US interest rates fall below 5% during the holidays? (Opening of the Second Bull Market vs. Volatility) – Choi Chang-gyu

When the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falls below 5%, the valuation burden on growth stocks is significantly eased. However, a true second bull market will only be completed if accompanied by a shift to net foreign buying, an increase in trading volume, and the expansion of buying interest beyond semiconductors to secondary batteries, ESS, securities, and biotech; if the concentration on large-cap stocks continues, the market may remain in a volatile phase.

#EarningsAreNotGuilty #ShouldHaveCaughtTheProfitWhenItWasGiven #SamsungElectronicsPreliminaryEarnings #OperatingProfit107TrillionWon #KOSPI6625Level #OptionExpirationDay #LGEnergySolutionStrongEarnings #SecondaryBatteryRebound #PeptronHitLimit #AlteogenPatentDispute #BiotechPlunge

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