Marcação a mercado: por que títulos longos dispararam e qual risco agora?
MRT News
17,855 views
Fixed income surged in mark-to-market valuations after the election, rewarding investors positioned in longer-term government bonds. Finance professor Alexandre Cabral calculates the size of the movement, shows how foreign investors took advantage of the interest rate drop, and warns of the risk that euphoria may have pushed the yield curve too far.
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In an appearance on Revista do Mercado, Cabral calculates a government bond traded between Friday and Monday and points to a gain of approximately 9% in dollars in a single trading session in the example analyzed. He also highlights that foreign investors had already built significant positions in Brazilian bonds during September.
The sharp drop in rates also caused a significant appreciation due to the mark-to-market valuation of longer-term bonds. But, after the initial reaction, Cabral considers that part of the pricing may be emotionally charged.
The professor mainly questions the bets on an acceleration of Selic rate cuts, observes the worsening inflation expectations mentioned during the interview, and recommends caution for those thinking of entering fixed-rate bonds now.
Timeline
00:00 Fixed income soars and foreign flow draws attention
01:36 The cost of government bonds bought by foreigners
07:09 Mark-to-market: the explosion of long-term bonds
08:13 How foreigners positioned themselves before the rally
09:25 Cabral sees emotion and exaggeration in the yield curve
12:25 Larger Selic rate cut? A warning for those entering the pre-fixed market
🟢 Watch Revista do Mercado, Monday to Friday, from 8 am to 12 pm, with the opening of the futures and spot markets, analyses, and the main relevant facts for the investor.
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#FixedIncome #GovernmentBonds #Selic
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Marcação a mercado: por que títulos longos dispararam e qual risco agora?
MRT News
17,855 views
Fixed income surged in mark-to-market valuations after the election, rewarding investors positioned in longer-term government bonds. Finance professor Alexandre Cabral calculates the size of the movement, shows how foreign investors took advantage of the interest rate drop, and warns of the risk that euphoria may have pushed the yield curve too far.
Click the link and subscribe to InvestingPro with a special discount. Check it out:
https://www.investing-referral.com/mr...
Note: the coupon with an additional 15% discount on the selected subscription price only works on the web version.
In an appearance on Revista do Mercado, Cabral calculates a government bond traded between Friday and Monday and points to a gain of approximately 9% in dollars in a single trading session in the example analyzed. He also highlights that foreign investors had already built significant positions in Brazilian bonds during September.
The sharp drop in rates also caused a significant appreciation due to the mark-to-market valuation of longer-term bonds. But, after the initial reaction, Cabral considers that part of the pricing may be emotionally charged.
The professor mainly questions the bets on an acceleration of Selic rate cuts, observes the worsening inflation expectations mentioned during the interview, and recommends caution for those thinking of entering fixed-rate bonds now.
Timeline
00:00 Fixed income soars and foreign flow draws attention
01:36 The cost of government bonds bought by foreigners
07:09 Mark-to-market: the explosion of long-term bonds
08:13 How foreigners positioned themselves before the rally
09:25 Cabral sees emotion and exaggeration in the yield curve
12:25 Larger Selic rate cut? A warning for those entering the pre-fixed market
🟢 Watch Revista do Mercado, Monday to Friday, from 8 am to 12 pm, with the opening of the futures and spot markets, analyses, and the main relevant facts for the investor.
📺 Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications to follow the main news and analysis about the financial market, economy, politics, and B3 companies.
💚 Become a channel member and get access to exclusive benefits:
https://www.youtube.com/@mrtnewsofici...
MRT News is the leading broadcaster of the Brazilian financial market. Here you will find excerpts from live broadcasts and exclusive interviews with CEOs, managers, and analysts from the main B3 companies, with speed, credibility, and depth for the investor.
📲 Instagram: Instagram: mrtnewsoficial
📲 TikTok: TikTok: oficialmrtnews
📳 WhatsApp: https://bit.ly/3BTHNuF
#FixedIncome #GovernmentBonds #Selic