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Why does an ocean current influence our climate? Stefan Rahmstorf explains the impacts of the AMOC

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK

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PIK Department Head Stefan Rahmstorf explains how climate change is putting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at risk, and what this could mean for Europe and the world.

The AMOC transports warm water from the tropics northward, contributing to Europe’s mild climate – while carrying around 50 times more energy than humanity consumes.

Today, the circulation is weaker than at any point in the past thousand years.

In the video, Stefan Rahmstorf explains the complex dynamics of the AMOC – and what we can do to prevent further weakening.

0:00 How the AMOC regulates climate
1:42 Historical context and human impact
2:19 Data showing current AMOC slowdown
3:43 The tipping point
5:56 Consequences of AMOC collapse
6:43 Shifting probability estimates
7:52 The Paris Agreement and risk reduction

Video by Ariane Doehring

Image
Shutterstock
Nasa
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
Greg Shirah/NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio
National Oceanography Centre (NOC)
The National Oceanography Centre and the Trustees of the Natural History Museum with acknowledgement to the NERC SMARTEX project
NOAA Ocean Exploration, Voyage to the Ridge 2022
NOAA SOS

Drone operator
Mirko Schneider

Animations
SimplePlus
Globaia
NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio

Sound
Shutterstock
Everything Feels New by Evgeny Bardyuzha from Pixabay

20 Comments

@michaeldepodesta001 1 month ago

Thank you: Exceptionally clear and sobering.

@cheweperro 1 month ago

I find it absolutely idiotic what the Paris agreement is still being talked about. The 3y average is 1.5c, 2026 will be at or above 1.6c, 2027 will likely be above 1.7c. The chances of us having a year under 1.5c are now basically 0 but because of politics, we have to wait 10 years until the average is 1.5c to 'declare it dead'? It's insane

@climategeorge-r8y 1 month ago

Extraordinary that Stefan does not mention a collapse of AMOC would reduce winter temperatures in Northern/Western Europe by up to 30 degrees C- this is the HUGE threat which could destroy agriculture, ecosystems, economies, and create global disruption. And summer temperatures would still be increasing from climate change. I dont understand why this excellent video did not highlight this from the very beginning.

@manuelcalvelo6294 1 month ago

Ever since studying climate science 35 years ago, I have seen how both scientists and models underestimated the speed of change. Another critique I have since my university days is that many scientists have a bubble mentality and think only in terms of quantifiable risks, but can't, don't, won't take into account human nature: corporate greed and misinformation, general indifference, human inability to grasp urgency for problems of global scale and for generations to come. That leads to inaction or slow action, which explains why we keep flirting with the worst case scenarios. What should be very concerning is that when the probability of an amoc shutdown is calculated at 75%, that should be interpreted as almost 100%. Why? Because as he said himself, it is a self-amplifying system, that once it reaches a threshold, there is no way back. Again, we are not even close to improving or starting to solve the climate emergency. Dire forecasts 😢

@JoVolle 1 month ago

Thank you.

@remcovanek2 1 month ago

Nothing will happen ... until it happens. Then it will be too late.

@Daniel-f3n7i 1 month ago

The heat from the tropics is going to go somewhere. I suspect a different pattern of ocean currents will develop with consequences we haven't even begun to think about.

@rebelliousbodhisattva 1 month ago

how to maintain correct salinity of the northern waters to maintain the AMOC current?

@Morgead 1 month ago

the melting of the Greenland Ice in comparison to the introduction / develeopement of the Saint Lorenz River (melting of the north American Iceage land ice mass) and the inflow of much more drinkingwater than now made the Iceage in Europe last 1,000 y longer but it did not destroy or kill the AMOC back than. I think it is not going to stand still for several years, no. I think the diferences will be much more severe , like e.g. this year long very hot and dry summer and the Omega weather pattern coming much more frequently summer and winter, it is going to be extremely difficult for the european farmer to plan their crops

@sylvaingrenier2318 1 month ago

Do you calculate 1000 years recovery based on past climatic changes or on the actual trajectory of the climate? ;)

@MichielDutch 1 month ago

Thank you prof Rahmstorf for speaking out with this alarming message.

@2R.de.P 1 month ago

Can this year’s droughts in Spain, France, and the United Kingdom be linked to a slowing current that fails to transport warm water northward - causing it instead to linger off the coast of Western Europe - and which, combined with the warming Mediterranean Sea, creates a "heat dome" over Europe?

@elmahyrakanayori6016 1 month ago

Live between archipelago which is surround by ocean, active vulcanos , that everything could happen anytime make us should more aware with climate .

@petewright4640 1 month ago

If the AMOC had weakened significantly during the 20th century, and climate change had hardly got going, what is the very rapid warming now occuring going to do to it. It's clearly more sensitive to warming than the models indicate. Seems to me that shutdown is now inevitable.

@samuelsoroaster416 1 month ago

My observations suggest the AMOC weakens in the summer and even changes course at times and then regains strength in the fall...

@terenceiutzi4003 1 month ago

And how our climate shapes Ocean serculation! Clinate cooling andvthe ocean serculation is slowing!

@trstquint7114 1 month ago

Planet Earth is giving us a good beating, and if we still don't listen (and we are indeed NOT going to), she will come with her ultimate punishment: total extermination of the human species at a pace we cannot even imagine. Ouch!