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Timeline:
1.  00:00:01 Ruin Risk Beats Average Return
2.  00:02:11 Opportunity Cost Is Invisible
3.  00:04:05 Inversion Before Ambition
4.  00:06:15 Second-Order Consequences
5.  00:08:24 Asymmetric Bet Sizing
6.  00:10:09 Optionality Over Prediction
7.  00:12:20 Barbell Risk Allocation
8.  00:14:24 Skin In The Game Filter
9.  00:16:14 Follow The Incentive, Not The Argument
10. 00:18:17 Goodhart's Metric Corruption
11. 00:20:12 Cobra Effect Incentives
12. 00:22:09 Principal-Agent Misalignment
13. 00:24:08 Base Rates Beat Vivid Stories
14. 00:26:07 Survivorship Bias In Advice
15. 00:28:12 Silent Evidence Of Failures
16. 00:30:07 Selection Effects In Your Feed
17. 00:32:05 Denominator Blindness
18. 00:34:13 Sample Size Discipline
19. 00:36:09 Regression To The Mean
20. 00:38:09 Signal Versus Noise Threshold
21. 00:40:17 Map Is Not The Territory
22. 00:42:07 Falsifiability Test
23. 00:44:07 Steel Man Before Rebuttal
24. 00:45:58 Belief Updating In Increments
25. 00:48:03 Strong Opinions Weakly Held
26. 00:49:53 Confidence Calibration Training
27. 00:51:48 Forecast With Error Bars
28. 00:53:40 Premortem Before Commitment
29. 00:55:28 Outside View Estimation
30. 00:57:29 Planning Fallacy Correction
31. 00:59:28 Parkinson's Law Of Deadlines
32. 01:01:21 Chesterton's Fence Rule
33. 01:03:19 Lindy Effect For Durability
34. 01:05:14 Via Negativity Improvement (Fixed)
35. 01:07:08 Constraint Reveals Design
36. 01:09:11 Bottleneck Thinking
37. 01:11:09 Comparative Advantage Over Effort
38. 01:13:04 Circle Of Competence Boundary
39. 01:15:05 Preference Falsification
40. 01:17:01 Common Knowledge Cascades
41. 01:18:51 Overton Window Drift
42. 01:20:47 Availability Cascade
43. 01:22:54 Information Cascade In Crowds
44. 01:24:47 Pluralistic Ignorance
45. 01:26:53 Diffusion Of Responsibility
46. 01:28:44 Social Proof Under uncertainty
47. 01:30:31 Authority Gradient Suppression
48. 01:32:36 Signaling Versus Substance
49. 01:34:45 Costly Signal Credibility
50. 01:36:35 Foot In The Door Escalation
51. 01:38:30 Door In The Face Contrast
52. 01:40:31 Anchoring The Negotiation Frame
53. 01:42:22 Reciprocity Debt Engineering
54. 01:44:27 Commitment Consistency Trap
55. 01:46:25 Sunk Cost Divestment
56. 01:48:22 Endowment Effect On Ideas
57. 01:50:13 Loss Aversion Asymmetry
58. 01:52:05 Framing Effect In Choices
59. 01:54:03 Decoy Option Manipulation
60. 01:55:59 Choice Architecture Defaults
61. 01:58:03 Paradox Of Too Many Options
62. 02:00:12 Zeigarnik Open Loops
63. 02:02:13 Peak-End Rule Of Memory
64. 02:04:09 Duration Neglect
65. 02:05:59 Hedonic Adaptation Treadmill
66. 02:07:59 Affective Forecasting Error
67. 02:10:11 Focusing Illusion
68. 02:12:15 Impact Bias In Expectations
69. 02:14:12 Implementation Intention Scripting
70. 02:16:02 Cue, Routine, Reward Loop
71. 02:18:05 Temptation Bundling
72. 02:20:14 Ulysses Contract Pre-commitment
73. 02:22:05 Friction as Behavior Design (Fixed)
74. 02:24:06 Two-Minute Activation Rule
75. 02:26:18 Deliberate Practice Feedback Loop
76. 02:27:56 Desirable Difficulty In Learning
77. 02:29:56 Spacing Effect Over Cramming
78. 02:31:41 Testing Effect Retrieval
79. 02:33:40 Interleaving over Blocking
80. 02:35:31 Generation Effect
81. 02:37:22 Curse Of Knowledge In Teaching
82. 02:39:15 Feynman Explanation Test
83. 02:41:12 Illusion Of Explanatory Depth
84. 02:43:06 Dunning-Kruger Competence Blindness
85. 02:45:00 Impostor Calibration Gap
86. 02:46:50 Fundamental Attribution Error
87. 02:48:55 Actor-Observer Asymmetry
88. 02:50:56 Hanlon's Razor Of Intent
89. 02:52:53 Naive Realism
90. 02:55:00 Typical Mind Fallacy
91. 02:56:42 Fluency Fells like Truth
92. 02:58:39 Mere Exposure Familiarity

Idk. We all probably fell asleep

Pattern recognition is key behavioral patterns are confessions.

There's this guy Soren Vantrell who exposes how easy it is to manipulate people. They're trying to remove all his work and wipe him off the internet because his psychological theories are too real. It's unsettling.

I have 116 days clean now , today was my first day at work . I'm rebuilding my bridges now. My job knows I go to programs, meetings. I don't have to hide my defects no more. I get to be. I get to live. I thank God and all you guys. Because now I get to craft, redesign and slowing but surely get to control how I react more peacefully.
Thank you

Trying harder can become a way of postponing a question: is this relationship meeting your needs? The Hidden Rules of Attachment by Maya Ellison gives that question some room.

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