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Venezuela, Guyana & The Essequibo Crisis - Posturing or a new Special Military Operation?

Perun

563,114 views

Until recently, the comparatively small nation of Guyana didn't make global news particularly often. What was reported was generally a good news story - With oil discoveries and growing production driving rapid economic growth in the historically poor nation.

Now the nation is in the global spotlight as with the escalation of a centuries old territorial dispute, and neighbouring Venezuela asserting an intention to incorporate more than two thirds of Guyana's current territory into Venezuela.

Is the move simply domestically focused theatre, an attempt to pressure Guyana and the USA, or the prelude to a South American take on the 'Special Military Operation?' In this episode we discuss the nations involved, their motivations, resources, and try to ask why this is happening, and what may come next.

One note: I want to feature up here I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand in this video. They are more accurately described as a member of OPEC+ .

Patreon:
Patreon: PerunAU

Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)

On the 1899 Arbitration
Awardhttps://legal.un.org/riaa/cases/vol_X...

1966 Agreement to Resolve the Controversy over the Frontier between Venezuela and British Guiana (Geneva Agreement)
https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peace...

Relevant ICJ releases and hearing records:
https://www.icj-cij.org/case/171

ICJ Order of 1 December 2023
https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default...

IMF Profile: Guyana
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapp...

IMF Profile: Venezuela
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapp...

Featured Reports:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/06/am...

https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Venezuela & Guyana
00:01:28 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:34 — Venezuela
00:07:36 — Guyana
00:15:35 — Essequibo & Escalation
00:24:55 — Venezuela's Military
00:36:47 — Readiness, Manpower & Corruption
00:41:29 — Guyana's Military
00:43:30 — A Venezuelan Special Military Operation?
00:51:21 — Regional Actors
00:58:13 — A Risky Throw Of The Dice?
01:04:37 — Conclusion
01:05:36 — Channel Update

20 Comments

@PerunAU Creator 2 years ago (edited) Pinned

Firstly - I have COVID again and its awful. As a result this one might be a bit rougher than usual as I've often had to, for example, chop together bits of audio to remove coughs or parts where my voice didn't sound right. Apologies - hope it won't be an issue next week.

Secondly - thank you to all of you who voted for this topic. It was great to get a chance to jump over to South America for a week - and it really confirmed for me that I'd love to cover some of the major regional players like Brazil in the future.

Thirdly I want to make sure it's clear that I think it's important as always to distinguish between the actions of certain leaders (like Maduro) and the country they lead. For any Venezuelans watching (especially those of you who reached out and offered your thoughts and comments) - please don't take any slight against a particular leader as a negative statement towards the country or its people more broadly.

Finally - a note I want to add on listening back today. I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand - but it would be more accurate to describe them as part of OPEC+. That larger group has been at the fore recently - especially since late 2022's production cuts. The distinction doesn't impact the imperative of consumer countries to get more production online outside the OPEC+ grouping - but I thought it was worth a note.

@benpark5074 8 months ago

Don’t mind me, just brushing up on my history

@Markfr0mCanada 2 years ago

"Never rule out stupid" is a very important and often forgotten lesson when trying to predict what people will do. Thank you for including it.

@Nickor11 8 months ago

For some weird reason Youtube recommended me this older video today. Wonder why ;)

@lava_tiger 2 years ago (edited)

"I've got COVID, therefore fuck it I'm still uploading a 1h+ high-quality video perfectly on schedule". Truly admiring your work ethics! Thank you

@redchopsticks4539 8 months ago

Hard to believe this was two years ago. It seems like yesterday.

@ashe854 2 years ago

as a venezuelan myself i feel truly honored that perun is making a video about this situation.
love form venezuela, and i wish a quick recovery from covid.

@TonyCashHouse 2 years ago (edited)

As a Trinidadian, it is extremely concerning what going on with our neighbors. Of greater concern is the overwhelming lack of action from CARICOM.

@link6248icp 2 years ago

Venezuelan here. With all the clutter in the media lately thank you so much for presenting the situation with all its nuances as well as talking issues which have gone relatively unnoticed during the fast few days such as the manpower shortages.

I for one believe Maduro's play is for internal politics and a means of saving face after the opposition primaries. Most of the populace dislikes Maduro so I do not think he will gamble away what could very well be a disastrous war with awful consequences for his regime. Time will tell that hopefully that (a war) is not the case

@Markfr0mCanada 2 years ago

When you talked about deployed versus maintenance time, I remember joking back when I was in the Canadian navy that we're the only nation in the world who's submarines have spent more time in the air than our helicopters.

@juliuskresnik198 2 years ago

As a Brit, finding out that the lettuce could last longer than Maduro really made my day.

@QwoaX 2 years ago

An oil-rich nation lead by a dictator with a glorious stache is about to attack a small, neighbouring nation that also happens to be rich in oil.
We are witnessing history repeating itself.

@casbot71 2 years ago

So Emutopia can't use a internal referendum to claim the North Island of Kiwiland?

@Stubbert 2 years ago

I have a friend in the Peace Corps in Guyana. He is afraid for the people he has made friends so this is a much appreciated video, thank you

@toastamar 2 years ago

As a Guyanese who has been watching your vids for a while now. Thanks for this

@uazuazu 2 years ago

The aspect of Guyana being non-OPEC means that there may be an additional pressure behind the scenes for Maduro to act, since there is so much money and power on the line. But having seen Ukraine, with a bunch of drones and an element of surprise, Guyana could perhaps find a way to cripple Venezuela's military early on

@synapse0 2 years ago

A tangent, since sanctions are a hot topic in this story: Venezuela's latest bout of extreme poverty and starvation began a couple years before most sanctions hit, and before oil prices tanked in his regime. In 2012-2013 the venezuelan government established strict limitations on who can trade in dollars and how much, effectively nationalizing money exchange. In a matter of months the farms ran out of critical supplies and food was no longer being made.

@futureshocked 2 years ago

God damn...going from $19K PPP to $61K PPP...anyone who has ever gone from being poor to upper-middle class can imagine how that feels.

@cristobalstark6929 2 years ago

As a chilean with an enormous venezuelan inmigrants in my country this is a gift for me to understand a rather unknown topic, thanks Perun

@paraguayhastalavistaysenor9404 2 years ago

My country, Paraguay, used to be led by a similarly insane dictator (Solano López), who believed that Paraguay should conquer Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina to find the way to the sea.

The result was the destruction of Paraguay as a state. I hope Venezuelans understand that it is not cool to wage a destructive war with little return, but, since Russia is the one in control of Venezuela, I have no faith on it.