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Disappointing Systems in Ukraine - From imprecise precision munitions to explosive IFVs

Perun

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Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun

We've spent a lot of time in the past talking about systems that have been called 'game changers' or arguably overperformed in Ukraine, relative to either expectations, costs, or both.

Today, we look at some of the opposite - systems that may not be having the expected impact, and which might prompt some thinking in planners observing the Ukrainian experience.

Patreon:
Patreon: PerunAU

Reading and Sourcing:

DoD Reimbursable Rates FY2023
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Porta...

BMD-4M Product Information
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-force...

US Army - FY 2025 Budget Estimates - Aircraft Procurement, Army
https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72...

Program Acquisition Cost by Weapon System United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Request
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Porta...

Chatham House - Assessing Russian Plans for Military Regeneration
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/de...

Excalibur announcement and initial arrival reporting
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Sto...

https://interestingengineering.com/vi...

Reporting on Polish AH-64 purchase
https://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/fi...

https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-...

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/08/a...

Reporting on Russian EW
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ga...

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/25/wo...

Roger McDermott "Shamanov Fights for VDV’s Future" - 2012
https://jamestown.org/program/shamano...

Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) - AH-64E Apache New Build - Dec 2022
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Do...

Reporting on FARA
https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/...

https://www.defensenew s.com/air/2024/02/08/us-army-spent-billions-on-a-new-helicopter-that-now-will-never-fly/

Russian Ultra-nationalist rally report 2007
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ru...

Japan
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/...

interceptor drone vs Helicopter
https://www.twz.com/air/ukraine-situa...

Hellfire 2
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/conten...

JAGM
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/conten...

Polish Chunmoo order
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/...

Reporting on EW in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/the-invis...

https://www.afr.com/world/europe/russ...

Spike NLOS + AH-64
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/joi...

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.

Timestamps:

00:00 — Opening Words
00:54 — What Am I Talking About?
03:08 — Rating This
05:15 — When Precision - Isn't
07:30 — Excalibur
12:51 — GLSDB
20:10 — The Paradrop Problem
32:19 — Speaking Of Attack Helicopters
35:45 — Attack Helicopter Losses
41:08 — Polish Figures
47:04 — What Could It Be Instead?
54:01 — Not The End For Rotary...
58:13 — Channel Update

20 Comments

@PerunAU Creator 2 years ago Pinned

Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun

As noted in the channel update, I'm now collecting suggested questions for a future Q&A episode on Patreon. Next week I'll likely seek some input here if further questions are needed, so feel free to think up potential questions in the meantime if you'd like.

As for the episode itself, all I can say is that it's important not to overlearn the lessons of any one war, especially with such imperfect information available, but I thought it was important not just to talk about systems that are working really well, but also those that may be struggling a bit. Hope you enjoy.

Apologies for the late release on this one but an Aussie was busy winning the the F1 so...

@FrikInCasualMode 2 years ago

For military "That works." is just as important as knowing "That doesn't work."

@michaelmorley7719 2 years ago

"Now I know it might be very difficult for some of you to believe that a Boeing product might be flawed in some way . . . " Classic Perun damning-with-faint-understatement!

@akumaking1 2 years ago

Australian PowerPoint man is here to make Sundays better

@sudoren7572 2 years ago

hears the line about making Slaanesh proud in relation to the electromagnetic spectrum
This video right here, Inquisitor

@Scottagram 2 years ago

"turned into an Oryx entry" is probably the most hilariously grim phrase I've heard on this channel

@cjantarctica 2 years ago

One feature of Excalibur is the warhead will not arm if the accuracy of a shot falls outside a certain value. In a counterinsurgency setting this makes sense to avoid collateral damage. Shots were even aimed outside a village to have the guidance system steer them to the target and if there was a failure the shell would land in an empty field. But against an opponent with extensive GPS jamming it's likely the tiny GPS receiver in the shell being launched out of a cannon will quickly lose accuracy.

@GrahamCStrouse 2 years ago

Michael Bay was lead designer on the BMD-4.

@mistrants2745 2 years ago

The Slaanesh joke took me, as a 40k fan, so off guard that i thought i was having a small aneurysm and was 'mixing' the media i consumed together. Scrolled it back twice.

@johnnyenglish006 2 years ago

There are two rules when it comes to journalists: (1) When there's a rhetorical question in a headline ("End of Putin's Russia?") the answer is always "no". (2) when something is dubbed a "gamechanger" it means the naive journalist has been impressed by marketing materials and is getting ecstatic over something that will have a mild-to-medium effect on the situation.

@michaelthayer5351 2 years ago

Attack Helicopters are in a place that MBTs were in the 70s when everyone said they were obsolete due to prolific ATGMs and ironically attack helicopters. But what everyone forgets is that the more weapons there are that are designed to counter a specific platform the more vital that platform is.
Just look at what happens when you lack SHORAD and head into an area where attack helicopters prowl. Having ANY attack helicopters forces your opponent into heavily investing in SHORAD and MANPADS and being hesitant to launch any kind of operation where those are lacking. Because you can't just judge a system by what it lets you do, you have to also consider what it forces your opponent to do in response.

@Berthier_Enjoyer 2 years ago

3:20 I wouldn't say that the Maginot like was over learning from the previous war. The whole point of the forts were to force a war of movement while keeping the coal and steel rich areas of France protected. This happened. The common sentiment is that the Maginot line failed, but it worked perfectly fine. A lot of stuff failed for France, including even a General deciding to leave his forts.

@Mufestus 2 years ago

"fail cheaply" that's good general life advice.

@wojciechmichalak3978 2 years ago

All hail powerpoint man

@demos113 2 years ago (edited)

Sunday would not be the same without this. 🙂

@timsullivan4566 2 years ago (edited)

"not talking about game-changing systems, but systems that might be put under pressure by the way the game is changing.”
🙄 🤔 😄😅🤣
(I think I'm so used to Perun's clever phrasing...
...that I sometimes forget how truly clever he is!)

@danwylie-sears1134 2 years ago (edited)

Interesting about Excalibur. When we stopped hearing about Excalibur, I had assumed it was mostly a combination of two things: the fact that they were available in such small numbers, and assets valuable enough to target with Excalibur having been moved out of the considerably longer range of rocket artillery.

--

GLSDB was supposed to be cheap and available in large numbers. The ability to put an incoming object on enemy radar is valuable: even if the object in question isn't actually going to hit anything, it can help make it more likely that something else will, or that enemy resources will be expended without effect. So I would have expected GLSDB to still be heavily used, if lack of accuracy were the only problem.

@dylanreynolds4334 2 years ago

“Now I know it might be very difficult for some of you to believe that a Boeing product may be flawed in some way”👌🏻

@TheChieftainsHatch 2 years ago (edited)

Sorry, mate, but I really think you missed the point of the attack helicopter concept, at least in the modern Western concept. I can't speak as to either how the Russians think they should be using their helicopters in doctrine, or how they actually are using their helicopters in doctrine, but you seem to have completely ignored where the attack helicopter fits in as far as we in the West are concerned. The days of using attack helicopters in a troop support role to aid ground forces are long gone, except in cases of extreme emergency or very permissive environments. Instead, they are used as the division and corps commander's maneuver asset. MG Isenhower last week publicly described an evolution during an NTC rotation for a corps-level mission, the 1AD CAB sending both battalions from Fort Irwin to a target area over 250km away, (Conducted with incorporation into a Red Flag exercise to replicate the air and SEAD problem) and this sort of operation pretty much matches what I've seen helicopters be used for over the past four years' worth of division and corps level exercises. You can imagine the level of havoc which can be wreaked by one battalion, let alone two in the division and corps deep areas, by a unit capable of identifying and engaging its own targets in real-time from (relatively speaking) close range, whilst itself emitting a rather limited EM signature, and, of course, being entirely unjammable unlike long-range loitering munitions.

@Blewprint007 2 years ago

“today we’re not talking about game-changing systems, but systems that might be put under pressure by the way the game is changing.” Tzeench, the Changer of ways 😀