Moscow expected its advance near Lyman to threaten Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Instead, Ukrainian forces struck the machinery behind that offensive and forced commanders to send reserves back into the sector. Attacks on Rubicon drone crews, ammunition, headquarters and communications came before the infantry assault near Nove. Russian reinforcements moved toward the direction their commanders anticipated, while the main Ukrainian push hit elsewhere. Troops intended for the next advance were suddenly needed to protect the ground behind it.

Ukraine's assault began in the rear, where drone surveillance and working communications had allowed Russian units to control movement across open terrain. Heavy-lift drones delivered armed ground robots, while remote-controlled vehicles packed with explosives struck command positions. With FPV coverage reduced and headquarters disrupted, infantry advanced into openings that had previously been dangerous to cross. The attack left commanders struggling to identify where the next blow would land.

Pro-war commentators are now accusing officers of sending headquarters misleading reports about captured territory. Those reports matter because commanders move men and equipment according to what they believe they control. As winter approaches, shortages of transport, fuel and properly equipped troops make each emergency transfer harder. Every formation sent to plug one gap leaves less combat power available for the next fight.


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Dr. Jason Jay Smart, also known as Jason Smart and Jason J Smart, is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin for supporting Russia’s democratic opposition to Vladimir Putin.

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