澳洲房价开始下跌！澳洲最权威房价专家Tim Lawless证实买家市场真的来了｜负扣税+预算案精准打击房价
澳洲程序员大卫
13,663 views
#AustraliaIT #AustraliaJobSearch #AustraliaJobFinding #AustraliaComputerScience #AustraliaEntrepreneurship
This video avoids political stances and focuses on analyzing several key signals emerging in the Australian property market, based on a recent interview with Tim Lawless, a renowned Australian real estate data analyst and head of research at Cotality:
00:00 What new changes have occurred in the Australian property market?
00:37 Who is Tim Lawless?
02:24 What is Cotality?
04:37 The real reasons for the decline in house prices
05:41 How are NG changes affecting investors?
06:45 Why is everyone waiting and seeing?
08:57 New or resale home?
10:13 Australia has entered a buyer's market
11:27 This may not be a V-shaped rebound
14:56 Should you buy a house now?
15:57 Have policy reforms achieved their intended goals?
It is important to note that this video is for market information sharing and personal opinions only and does not constitute any real estate, investment, tax, or financial advice. Before buying or investing in a property, please conduct an independent analysis based on your personal financial situation, the specific area, and the property itself, and consult with professionals.
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👉【Australian Real Estate】Video
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20 Comments
2，一种趋势的形成，一定是众多集团和个人的一致共识推升而造成的，就像中国，地产商，地方政府，商业银行，经济学家，中央财政，个人需求和房地产从业人员共同作用下形成了巨大泡沫。澳洲过去十年的地产的蓬勃发展同样是多方共识所推升形成的，反之亦然
3，泡沫的形成是多重向上的因素共振所致，一旦某些，甚至某个因素消失或减弱了，泡沫就开始破灭了，
这个过程可能很慢，也可能很急速，速度取决于各种因素的速度和力度
4,所谓的住房需求足够与不足，所谓刚需的刚与不刚，都是相对的和动态的，收入高时，信心就很足，，反之信心就不足，收入高时，一个人可以住一套两居室，收入少时，四人也可以住一套两居室，甚至群租
5,民选政党和领袖对经济政策的选择，是随着选民的意愿而做出的，经济形势好时，选民的意愿关注点不在经济，不在物价房价涨跌，经济不好时收入减少时，物价房价房租的上涨，就成为选民的几乎唯一考虑因素
6，现今世界是一个两极分化，贫富差距极大的世界，民粹主义抬头和大力发展的世界，美国，欧洲都一样，如今澳洲一国党的异军突起，正是如此。不管一国党是否当政，它的政策都会反映在政府的政策中的，就像工党政府推出负扣税政策一样
7，用动态地，变化的，综合的，历史眼光分析经济形势，地产行业的发展，而不要只看过去的数据，特别是短期的数据
8，房地产天然带有双重属性，投资属性和居住属性，居住属性是与人们的需求和收入多少相匹配的，而投资属性是和市场中的资金充裕程度相关的，这几年澳洲房价翻倍，也是与疫情后全球大撒币，大放水相关的，大放水大大的泛滥了房地产的投资属性，严重的挤压了它的居住属性
9，至于澳洲房地产的行业兴衰，几个考虑的因素：利率，个人收入，人口变化，税收政策，土地和建房成本，国际国内经济形势
-利率政策，近几年会有窄幅波动，但是就算是现在的利率，乘以巨大的贷款金额，维持三年，很多人的信心就崩溃了，叠加经济形势的恶化，情况可想而知
-个人收入，澳洲大部分人的收入，基本靠房地产和服务业，这些行业的收入不稳定，不长久，低端化，而公共服务又取决于财政支出，怎么敢有信心消费和买房呢
-人口变化，可以说澳洲人口增加，大部分是依赖移民数量，这点和加拿大类似，而移民数量取决于政府的移民政策，前几年由于疫情，移民政策放松，导致住房需求骤然上升，而当下经济不好，民粹主义泛滥，极右主义抬头，为了选票，收紧移民政策，就变得顺理成章了
-税收政策，现今世界贫富差距过大，下层群体众多，为了拉拢选民，就要多发福利，就要多收税，这方面影响最大的群体，就是所谓的中产阶级，也是享受负扣税政策的主体，今后的税收政策，一定是杀中产济贫困的
-土地和营建成本，这是最难预料的，政策，审批效率，科技创新等等，这些影响因素，完全取决于政府是否真正考虑百姓的居住意愿和要求，而推出和执行一些改革政策
-国际国内经济形势，很明显，当今国际经济形势恶化，全球化红利消失，经济增量消失，各国千方百计的争夺存量，在过去的几十年里，澳洲经济从全球化中大大收益，也同时在国际分工中，失去了不具备竞争优势的制造业和科技创新能力，现在只剩下矿业和能源业，而这些行业又无法提供大量的就业人口，同时这些行业寡头，又游说和施压政府的收税政策，财政的拮据外加，能源业的削弱和制造业的消失，澳洲经济前景逐渐黯淡。由于疫情放水过度，现在各国又在收水，也必然压缩和挤占房地产的投资属性的原有空间，可以说，房地产的投资属性和居住属性将同时受到挤压
10，我想就此分析，给出一个个人的预测，澳洲的房地产会进入一个漫长的下降通道，这个过程像是温水煮青蛙，但是过程很平滑，不会是断崖式的。
以上是我个人的粗糙的不成熟的意见，利用三个小时，边看世界杯比赛，边写出来的，但是可以保证不是AI文章。
澳洲房价开始下跌！澳洲最权威房价专家Tim Lawless证实买家市场真的来了｜负扣税+预算案精准打击房价
澳洲程序员大卫
13,663 views
#AustraliaIT #AustraliaJobSearch #AustraliaJobFinding #AustraliaComputerScience #AustraliaEntrepreneurship
This video avoids political stances and focuses on analyzing several key signals emerging in the Australian property market, based on a recent interview with Tim Lawless, a renowned Australian real estate data analyst and head of research at Cotality:
00:00 What new changes have occurred in the Australian property market?
00:37 Who is Tim Lawless?
02:24 What is Cotality?
04:37 The real reasons for the decline in house prices
05:41 How are NG changes affecting investors?
06:45 Why is everyone waiting and seeing?
08:57 New or resale home?
10:13 Australia has entered a buyer's market
11:27 This may not be a V-shaped rebound
14:56 Should you buy a house now?
15:57 Have policy reforms achieved their intended goals?
It is important to note that this video is for market information sharing and personal opinions only and does not constitute any real estate, investment, tax, or financial advice. Before buying or investing in a property, please conduct an independent analysis based on your personal financial situation, the specific area, and the property itself, and consult with professionals.
📣 "How to Find an IT Job in Australia" Course Link: https://course.cyberlark.com.au/cours...
📣 "Australia Study Abroad Guide" Course Link:
https://course.cyberlark.com.au/cours...
📣 "How to Create an Electronic Resume Step by Step" Course Link: https://course.cyberlark.com.au/cours...
📣 "25 IT Job Resume Templates" Link: https://course.cyberlark.com.au/cours...
📣 Australian Property Investment Calculator: https://bit.ly/3h80G4s
📣 David's Boutique Shopping Agent in Australia, 100% Authentic, Direct Shipping from Australia: https://bit.ly/3G7v6hh
📣 Program Outfit Link: https://bit.ly/4h5P9k3
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📣 Moomoo Benefits Account Opening Link: https://start.moomoo.com/00x8LN
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📣 Free Consultation Appointment: https://cyberlark.com.au/
Other Related Videos:
【Working in Australia】
👉 Seven Ways to Generate Passive Income｜Financial Freedom｜Early Retirement with Income Even While Relaxing 七种被动收入的方式｜财务自由｜提前退休躺平也要有收入 Passive Income｜...
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👉 How to get certified as an AWS Solution Architect Professional? 我是如何通过 AWS Solution Architect Professional...
👉 The life of IT programmers in Australia: Can they still code at 40+? 澳洲IT程序员的生活状态，刚进公司就被告知，不要努力工作？！我们加班吗？40+还可以...
👉 Why you need a full-time job in Australia, not a startup! 在澳洲为什么你需要一份全职工作，而不是创业！聊聊IT全职工作和创业的利弊
👉 The Power of Programmers: System Architects with a Global Open Source Vision 程序员的力量: 系统架构师用全球开源视野，谈异步工作如何提高效率，解析房产投资计算器...
More: 【澳洲IT工作】
【Australian Real Estate】
👉 Australian Real Estate Investment Calculator, Free Assessment of Real Estate Investment Returns 澳洲房产投资计算器 - 免费评估澳洲房产投资回报率 [英/简/繁体字幕]
👉 Reflections on Living in Brisbane, Australia for 10 Years, Introducing Brisbane 澳洲布里斯班2032年奥运会，你打它主意了吗？谈谈居住在布里斯班10年的感想，以及房市投资
👉 Brisbane Real Estate Research and Investment, Four Must-Check Websites 澳洲布里斯班房产调研投资，四个必查网站，谨防中介的坑蒙拐骗！详细解答布里斯班学区，布...
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👉【Australian Real Estate】Video
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