The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds has exceeded 4.85% for the first time since 2023, and the yield on 30-year bonds has reached 5.3% for the first time in 19 years. In Japan, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds also briefly exceeded 3%, reaching a level not seen in 30 years.

Interestingly, while both Japan and the US are facing rising long-term interest rates, the sense of urgency differs dramatically. In the US, the Treasury Secretary is scrambling to keep interest rates down using unconventional methods, while Japan's finances are actually "improving"—this contrasting scenario is due to a mechanism of interest rate increases that takes effect with a time lag through the "refinancing" of government bonds.

This time, we will discuss "rising interest rates and public finances," comparing Japan and the US. We will cover the "Domar condition" for measuring fiscal sustainability, the current situation in the US where interest payments have exceeded defense spending, Treasury Secretary Bescent's "Treasury Department twist" and its contradictions, and the true nature of Japan's current "bonus time" of an average interest rate of 0.8%, and its expiration date. Japan has a mountain of debt, but the fire is spreading rapidly in America—while Japan "hasn't burned yet," the fuse has already begun to ignite.

*The interest rates and other figures in the video are as of the time of production (mid-September 2026).

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📌 What you will learn from this video
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
• Introduction – The contrasting "tension" of rising interest rates in Japan and the US
• Why do rising interest rates damage public finances?
• How to deal with the argument that "government bonds are not debt"
• The "Domar condition" for measuring fiscal sustainability
• Which is higher: interest rates or growth rates?
• The key is "refinancing" – damage comes with a time lag
• [USA] Interest payments reach $1 trillion, exceeding defense spending
• 19% of tax revenue disappears into interest
• Average remaining term of 6 years – a structure where rising interest rates have already taken hold
• Congressional Budget Office officially warns of "unsustainability"
• Treasury Secretary Bescent's defense – doubling buybacks
• An unusual method: the "Treasury Department version of the twist"
• The contradictions inherent in the measures—the ill-advised move of shortening the term
• The White House adding fuel to the fire
• Was the Trump administration the only one that ignited the fire?
• Will the looseness of fiscal policy be corrected even after the midterm elections?
• [Japan] 3% interest rates for the first time in 30 years and the "Basic Policy Shock"
• The reason why the fiscal situation is still "improving"
• Average interest rate of 0.8%—Government bonds as a shield in an era of ultra-low interest rates
• Tax revenue of 84 trillion yen, primary budget balance turns into a surplus
• The apparent improvement created by inflation
• The true nature of the bonus time and its expiration date
• 165 trillion yen will be reissued annually at new interest rates
• Ministry of Finance estimates—interest payments in FY2035 will be 36 trillion yen
• The Bank of Japan is stepping down as a buyer
• What will be the effect on the government's assets and revenue?
• Comparing Japan and the US in one picture—the mountain of debt and the spread of the fire
• The possibility of interest rate increases stopping—1,100 trillion yen of dormant cash and deposits
• The Reverse Scenario – Another Switch Activated by a 6% US Interest Rate
• A Perspective on Examining "Growth Heals All"
• Summary
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📖 Related Videos
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
✅️ Practical Government Bond Investing – 4 Ways for Individuals to Buy Government Bonds
👉️ 【金利3%時代】国債の買い方4つを徹底比較｜個人向け国債・投資信託…それぞれの特徴と...

✅️ What are Long-Term Interest Rates, and Why Are They Rising? (May Video)
👉️ 長期金利が急上昇している原因とその意味をわかりやすく解説します！

✅️ Japan-US Coordinated Intervention for the First Time in 28 Years – Was the Real Target US Treasury Bonds?
👉️ なぜアメリカは円を買ったのか？協調介入の裏にある「米国債危機」と日本への政策圧力を解...

✅️ A Must-See for Beginners! 🤭Investing Basics and How to Get Started😎 (Playlist)
👉️ 初心者必見！🤭投資の基本と始め方😎

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔔 Subscribe to our channel here
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
We explain daily news and basic political and economic knowledge in an easy-to-understand way for beginners.
Please subscribe to our channel and let's learn together!

👉️ @koala.t

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔍 Keywords
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
#LongTermInterestRates #FiscalPublicFinance #GovernmentBonds #InterestPayments #Bessent #FRB #BankofJapan #BasicShock