📌 Cast

Host: MC Lee Jong-won

Caster: Caster Lee Jung-woo

Expert 1: Heo Ban-seok | CEO of Momentum Tree

Expert 2: Park Woo-shin | CEO of J-Trend Investment Research Institute

Expert 3: Hwang Yu-hyun | PB Team Leader, Sales Department, Shinhan Investment & Securities

Production: PD Kim Kyung-yoon, Writer Kim A-rang, AD Moon Ji-hyun

▶ 20261006 The War Room Part 2

▶ Mon-Fri 21:00

💡 Today's Code Name

Key Point (Profits are best when taken while they are!): Despite the US Nasdaq hitting a new all-time high, the KOSPI fell below the 7,000 mark to 6,941 in just one day due to massive net selling of spot stocks by foreign investors amounting to approximately 1.7 trillion won. Conversely, the KOSDAQ surged 2.98% to close at 919.92 points, reaching its highest level in three months, resulting in extreme decoupling between the two markets. With the imminent end of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's share buybacks, the domestic options expiration on the 8th, and Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement approaching, profit-taking selling pressure emerged in large-cap stocks. Conversely, inflows of capital shifted to the KOSDAQ's semiconductor materials, components, and equipment (SoBuJang), biotech, and secondary battery sectors. It is reasonable to refrain from betting on index-heavy large-cap stocks until preemptive conditions—such as the stabilization of oil prices and US 10-year Treasury yields, and the return of foreign investor demand—are met. Furthermore, a strategy of maintaining a 30% cash weighting by taking partial profits on stocks exposed to rebound momentum, such as aerospace and quantum sectors, is appropriate.

⚔️ Supply & Demand Analysis Room

📉 ① Should I Buy – KOSDAQ (Hit 900 and go up one notch)

Park Woo-shin: While large-cap stocks are taking a breather, leading stocks in the semiconductor materials, components, and equipment sectors within the KOSDAQ market are exercising strong leadership and expanding their influence on the index. Jusung Engineering has surpassed 270,000 won, overtaking EcoPro to claim the second-highest market capitalization on the KOSDAQ. Meanwhile, the positive sentiment is spreading from substrate stocks like Isu Petasis to the biotech and secondary battery sectors, driving further momentum in the KOSDAQ index.

Hwang Yu-hyun: The relative strength of the KOSDAQ compared to the KOSPI is clearly evident. Following the solid upward trend in semiconductor materials, components, and stocks, rotational buying is rapidly spreading to biotech stocks such as HLB and Samchundang Pharmaceutical, which had fallen excessively, as well as secondary battery stocks like Samsung SDI and EcoPro BM. These sectors are emerging as attractive alternatives to compensate for the underperformance of large-cap stocks in the index.

📉 ② Palgeol – Semiconductor Top Two (Absent before earnings announcement)

Park Woo-shin: Despite strong Q3 earnings and the outlook for rising HBM prices, profit-taking selling pressure is concentrating due to short-term uncertainty ahead of Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement on the 8th and the approaching end of the share buyback program that had defended the stock price until recently. Portfolio management is necessary, keeping in mind the possibility of supply and demand gaps before and after earnings announcements.

Hwang Yu-hyun: Foreign investors' selling pressure on the Korean semiconductor sector continues fiercely, amounting to 1.7 trillion won, relative to global stock markets. While this appears to be more of a weighting adjustment from a global asset allocation perspective coinciding with options expiration rather than a deterioration in industry conditions, a short-term conservative view remains valid as persistent high interest rates, the controversy surrounding SK Hynix's Solidigm listing, and noise regarding major shareholders selling their stakes are weighing down stock prices.

📝 Tomorrow's Market iF Report

① What if the KOSPI weakness and KOSDAQ strength persist? (Buying KOSPI at low prices vs. Focusing on KOSDAQ) – Park Woo-shin

Although the KOSDAQ index has broken through the 919 mark, it remains in the zone of excessive mid-term decline, suggesting that the upward momentum of rotational trading may continue. Since the recovery of the KOSPI trend depends on the timing of the return of foreign investor demand for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, a strategy of focusing on leading KOSDAQ stocks (materials, parts, and equipment; biotech) is advantageous for the time being.

② What if you are entering the KOSDAQ for the first time? (Sector-specific Rotation vs. Chasing Soaring Stocks) – Hwang Yu-hyeon
Forcing yourself to chase stocks that have surged in the short term carries a very high volatility risk. A safer strategy is to wait for the right moment for rotation trading. This involves confirming the direction of large-cap semiconductor stocks while selecting and waiting to buy stocks within sectors such ...