Why Susquehanna Is Building a Prediction Market Business | Odd Lots

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Prediction markets that enable you to bet on pretty much everything are everywhere nowadays. But there's still a big question over whether they can expand to include larger institutional investors like hedge funds. Part of the problem is that a lot of prediction market contracts are illiquid and trading volumes can sometimes be shallow. That's where trading firm Susquehanna International Group comes in. In this episode, recorded live at New York's City Winery, we talk to Jeremy Maletz, Susquehanna's head of macro trading and prediction markets, about the firm's market-making business with Kalshi. We talk about how big investors could use prediction markets, what Susquehanna is seeing in terms of flows, how a market-maker hedges risk on these contracts, and how it makes money from them.

Chapters:
00:00:00 - Cold Open
00:00:56 - Introduction - Odd Lots Live
00:03:20 - Susquehanna's Prediction Markets Role
00:05:59 - Market Making Mechanics
00:08:15 - Institutional Hedging Challenge
00:11:04 - Institutional Adoption Barriers
00:13:39 - Market Selection Strategy
00:15:44 - Market Evolution and Growth
00:19:08 - Insider Trading Concerns
00:22:39 - Market Manipulation and Whale Concerns
00:24:53 - Market Selection Process
00:27:15 - Speed to Market Innovation
00:29:12 - Role Evolution and Election Trading
00:30:42 - End Credits
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