OpenTube

The Genius Trap of "What if the Wind Doesn't Blow?"

Prof Gio | Giordano Scarciotti

115,037 views

What happens when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine? It is one of the most common questions in the renewable energy debate, pointing to a real engineering problem while hiding several assumptions.

In this video, I explore how modern power grids manage periods of low wind and solar generation using four main engineering strategies: Diversification, Overbuilding, Storage, and Demand-Response. We break down how the National Energy System Operator (NESO) balances the UK grid. We also dive into the economics of capital expenditures, the math behind oversizing solar farms, and the massive shift toward grid-scale batteries and automated demand-response.

Beyond the engineering, we also deconstruct the psychological fallacies that make this question such a persuasive rhetorical device, from Brandolini's Law to False Dilemmas. Finally, we discuss the genuine physical and economic bottlenecks of the energy transition, including the Cannibalization Effect, grid inertia, and geographic constraints.

👇 If you are enjoying this video, leaving a comment below is one of the best ways to support it.

🔔 Subscribe for more data-driven breakdowns of our power grids and global energy systems.

---
⏱️ Chapters:
00:00 - The Genius Trap
01:34 - Strategy 1: Diversification
05:51 - Strategy 2: Overbuilding
08:15 - Strategy 3: Storage
12:42 - Strategy 4: Demand-Response
16:59 - From Engineering to Rhetoric
18:50 - The Psychology: False Dilemma
19:29 - The Psychology: Brandolini’s Law
20:15 - The Psychology: Straw Man Argument
21:00 - The Psychology: Probability
22:44 - Real Bottlenecks: Economics
24:43 - Real Bottlenecks: Inertia & Infrastructure
25:56 - A Dynamic Future

---
📚 References Discussed (more references are in the actual video):
DC/AC Ratio Photovoltaic Optimization: https://pv-maps.com/en/blog/dc-ac-rat...
SMA Solar Technology - Oversizing Whitepaper: https://cdn.sma.de/fileadmin/content/...
China Starts World's Largest Compressed-Air Power Storage Plant: https://www.energyconnects.com/news/r...
Grid-Scale Storage - International Energy Agency (IEA): https://www.iea.org/energy-system/ele...
Report: Consumer flexibility - ready to replace coal (Octopus Energy Saving Sessions): https://octopus.energy/blog/Consumerf...
Elexon - Imbalance Pricing & Settlement: https://www.elexon.co.uk/
Negative energy price record in Europe (World Economic Forum): https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/...

---

🏷️ Tags:

#RenewableEnergy #PowerGrid #Engineering #ProfGio #CleanEnergy #EnergyTransition #WindPower #SolarEnergy #GridStorage #ElectricVehicles #SmartGrid

20 Comments

@Prof_Gio Creator 3 months ago (edited) Pinned

Question for you: which challenge would you like to hear more about? And which of the four engineering strategies (diversification, overbuilding, storage, demand-response) do you think will be the hardest to scale up in your own country? Let me know down below! 👇

I will add here some answers to recurring comments:
- About "having to invent new solutions for the lack of inertia" I did not mean we are waiting to invent new physical hardware. Components like Grid-Forming Inverters (GFMs) and synchronous condensers absolutely exist today. The actual bottleneck is their system-level control at scale. Running a few GFMs alongside traditional spinning mass is a solved problem. Coordinating tens of thousands of them to autonomously run a 100% inverter-based national grid without triggering unwanted and unexpected effects is not. That system-level architecture remains a highly active area of research. (Actually, I originally included GFMs and condensers in the video, but eventually I cut them to keep the video concise.)

Creating these deep-dive videos takes a lot of time (e.g. editing) and resources (e.g. gear). If you value this kind of engineering content and want to help support the channel, you check my Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cw/ProfGio
If a monthly commitment isn't for you, but you still want to help support the channel's growth, I have also set up a Buy Me a Coffee page: https://buymeacoffee.com/profgio ☕

(And if you'd like to represent the channel, you can browse the merch shelf below the video, or visit the shop directly: https://prof-gio-shop.fourthwall.com)

Thank you for watching and for being part of this community.

@dereklawther300 3 months ago

Better to ask this question. “What happens when wars cause traditional fossil fuel supply chains break down, storage facilities are bombed and fuel prices make them unattainable?”

@nickhockings443 3 months ago (edited)

Even if you had to burn fossil fuels on some days - that doesn't detract from the benefit of not burning fossil fuels the rest of the time.

@Iigua 3 months ago

When someone asks you "what if there's no wind?" You should ask "What if the Strait of Hormuz is closed?"

@paulyap4057 3 months ago

A Doctor goes to sleep at night: "the doctor has stopped doctoring, he's obviously completely useless."

@NacorantheHarmonicaPlayer 3 months ago

In this particular moment I think the answer is, "What if the straight isn't open?"

The sun and wind blow much more reliably than international trade moves.

@ChapmanCentral 3 months ago (edited)

My mother-in-law has a new build house with solar, heat pump and PIV (correction: MVHR, of course, not PIV!). No gas supply at all. She has a negative electricity bill most months, even though she has a battery EV. Energy efficiency, insulation and microgeneration are the real heroes.

@nickhockings443 3 months ago

Wrt "but there aren't power lines to transmit the renewable power" - we never had any difficulty building power lines to non-renewable power stations in remote locations e.g. all of the UK's nuclear power stations.

@UUpianoman 3 months ago

I recently installed a solar system and have gone down the YouTube rabbit hole to understand large scale implementation of renewable energy. This video is the most illuminating source I have found. Thank you!

@konstantinlozev2272 3 months ago

Solar overpanelling is very very common, especially in the north of Europe, where we have many cloudy days.
Combine that with a battery and you are good even in cloudy days.

@wernerviehhauser94 3 months ago

I've always imagined to power solar updraft towers with the hot air produced by polititians, and some of them seem EXTRA promising for that.

@timothyirey4215 3 months ago

What if an oil rig suddenly has a ruptured well head deep under water. What if a toxic coal ash pond over flows into the surrounding environment after a storm. What if an oil tanker runs aground in a pristine Alaskan sound. Non of these incidents were ever considered or planned for but energy storage is a far easier construction project than the massive clean up projects previously mentioned.

@cottawalla 3 months ago (edited)

The answer is, wind and solar isn't a generation problem, it's a distribution problem.

To make coal and gas energy generation viable we had to first build distribution systems for those materials.

@davidwright7193 3 months ago

As I am watching this the UK is exporting all its gas generation and more while also storing 200MW in pumped hydro. This is at 0845 on a cloudy day.

@surters 3 months ago

In the storage/demand-response department you missed the district heating that can store electricity as heat it will need later anyway either in giant water tanks or newly sand batteries.

@brerobsym 3 months ago

Don't know how or why you turned up in my feed, but I am so glad you did! Really appreciate your style and ethos. Thank you.

@RegularPantsFutures 3 months ago

What happens when the fuel runs out?
What happens when you can no longer afford the fuel?
What happens when it’s too hot to live well? - old people die of heat stroke and children cannot play outside.
What happens when a madman takes over a major exporting country and blows up the competition?…

@TillGroos 3 months ago

It's so nice to hear someone talk about stuff that he knows. Very refreshing, learned something today. Thank you

@woogicreate8876 3 months ago

Another benefit of battery storage is that micro facilities, near your small town, could provide the needed power over existing powerlines, without needing massive infrastructure changes to powerlines. Try to build a small scale gas power plant near a village for the same purpose. That's just impossible. When households will have more battery storage themselves, either as a 'powerbank' at home or an EV, then we can perfectly balance the grid at times of both high supply and demand. Those people with cars parked next to their homes and connected to the grid can help to supply power to cities where maybe less people have a car, or the car isn't connected to the grid ; "the countryside helping the cities". Again without needing massive changes to the infrastructure. A few sea containers of battery storage in a suburbs could perhaps be enough to supply enough electricy at peak hours and can be charged by wind turbines in the late evenings, early mornings and during the day by (excess) solar.

And the benefits? No air pollution, no dependencies on other countries, very predictable energy prices, very reliable energy supply.

@Tesswrench111 3 months ago (edited)

Even by just installing a small local battery in people's homes, that would allow them to draw cheaper power from when the rates are low and use it whenever they need, that on its own could help balance supply and demand and cover for periods of low generation